Thursday, January 27

2022: industrialists bet on “activity niches” and the agreement with the IMF


Santángelo spoke about a phenomenon of “duality” in the economy of 2021. That is, a real sector that did very well, combined with an unbalanced macro. “The main paradox is that there are positive real variables and a bad macro, these cohabitations sooner or later end in divorce,” warned the economist.

In this regard, he pointed out that “the rebound in activity exceeded what was expected, with a phenomenal export jump.” To graph the scenario, he argued that “Santa Claus came with soybeans and we went from $ 55,000 million in 2020 to $ 77,000 million in 2021.”

Santángelo warned that all this “coexists with bad financial variables and an annual inflation rate of 50% that reflects the state of economic imbalances.” He also questioned the government for considering that it sent “a racket” by delaying the exchange rate “a little”. But he warned that Argentina’s country risk level of 1800 points persistently “heralds a new restructuring” of the debt.

Regarding the Central Bank’s international reserves, he asserted that “they are the final funnel.” “We took the Quini, the Loto and the Prode all together and everything went away,” joked the analyst. In this sense, Carlos Melconián’s consulting partner pointed out that the key date to know where Argentina will go “is March 22 when the first unpayable maturity with the IMF arrives.”

“Is there a possibility of this happening?” Asked Berardi, to which the economist replied that he believes in the “survival instinct” of the government. “In the last minute of the supplementary, the Dobermans that bark are going to show that they do not bite,” he graphed.

On the other hand, Santángelo predicted that “the real economy will not be able to continue with this level of rebound in 2022” and that therefore “we must wait for the government to adjust the variables to reach 2023.”

Duality

Berardi, meanwhile, considered that “steel had a very good year” as part of the duality shown by the economy. “We see that the macroeconomy is not going to help us in 2022, so we have to look at the niches of activity,” he explained. The steel companies, according to the Ternium CEO, have in view as sectors of greater development in which to focus their efforts on construction, agricultural machinery, cars and the energy sector that in 2021 have been showing as the most dynamic items.

Another element that may play in favor, according to the businessman, is that the pandemic exposed the weakness of global supply chains, which is why large organizations are now seeking to secure closer suppliers. And for this reason, part of the productions are beginning to move from Asia to Latin America, where the example is Mexico.

On the other hand, most of the small and medium-sized companies that make up the Techint group chain believe that the recovery of their activity will continue in 2022. A survey conducted among 184 customers says that next year they will bill $ 4.177 million, which is equivalent to an improvement of 10%. In the same way, exports will pass US $ 194 million, with an advance of 16%, while investments will grow another 16% to US $ 151 million. The only thing that will not accompany the movement is employment, which will remain almost stagnant. It will grow just 1,100 jobs to 27,200 workers.

Consulted by Ámbito, the economist of the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Santiago Kovadlof, pointed out that “the strong rebound this year leaves a good base for next year, but there are great challenges ahead”, while he said that “the agreement with the IMF is going to close ”mainly because in his understanding, it will not have great demands on the country.



www.ambito.com