Thursday, May 19

57% of Madrilenians decided their vote before the 4M campaign and took the candidate more into account than the program, according to the CIS

57.5% of the residents of the Community of Madrid decided to vote in the early elections of May 4 to the regional Assembly before the electoral campaign. This is reflected in the post-election CIS survey, which also reflects that the majority of voters took the candidates into account more than other issues when choosing the ballot. Voters bet more on the headliners (33.9%) than other issues such as the electoral program (25.7%) or the management of the pandemic (19.2%).

By party, it is also observed that the vast majority of Madrilenians had decided their vote for the formation they chose before the campaign. It was the case of 68% of those who voted for the PP. Data very similar to those of PSOE, Unidas Podemos and Vox. The surprise comes with Más Madrid, which in the 4M elections achieved the surprise in votes to the Socialists. Of the respondents who voted for their candidate, Mónica García, only 31% had it clear before the campaign, 56.4% did so in those weeks, of which the vast majority (36.5%) decided on the last week of the campaign for the doctor.

Despite the different threats that various candidates and politicians received by letter and that the media took over the last week of the campaign, it was not the issue that citizens perceive that was the focus of the campaign. Neither did the rejection of the extreme right in the leftist formations. The post-election poll shows that the Popular Party managed to dominate the campaign agenda. 33% of those surveyed affirm that the pandemic was the most debated topic compared to other issues.

It was the framework that the president of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, wanted to impose, who won a resounding victory in early elections on May 4, achieving 65 seats and replacing the PP as the first force in the Madrid Assembly with more than double the seats it won two years ago, when it won 30 deputies.

Ayuso obtained a comfortable majority thanks to the voters who came to him from different formations, that is, that in the previous elections of 2019 they opted for other political options and that now they decided on the PP. The so-called “borrowed votes”, as coined by the Madrid president. And although the regional leader assures that she obtained a lot of voters from the PSOE, the reality is not exactly that. 66% of the voters of Ciudadanos two years ago, voted for the popular ones. Ayuso also won 36% of the voters who opted for Vox in 2019. And to a lesser extent, about the Socialist voters in the previous elections, 9% opted for the PP ballot.

The PSOE went from being the first force in the Assembly to the third in just two years with the results of the 4M. Looking at the transfer of votes, it is observed that a quarter of the people who took the socialist ballot in 2019, 25%, this time opted for More Madrid, which achieved the desired surplus in votes, not in seats.

The formation led by Mónica García manages to loyalty to the electorate that two years ago voted Íñigo Errejón as head of the Madrid party. 64% repeat and also García got votes – in addition to the PSOE – from Unidas Podemos. 34% of the voters who opted for Isa Serra in the previous elections, preferred García over Pablo Iglesias.