The PP started as a favorite in these autonomous regions and the rush was inevitable. The disappearance of Ciudadanos, which today definitively goes down in history –as happened before with the CDS or UPyD–, has regrouped the conservative vote. It was sung that the PP could only improve: to recover a large part of the municipal and regional governments that, four years ago, it lost. But the victory of the right on this electoral night is broader; more emphatic. And it is not only explained by the collapse of Ciudadanos. There is much more.
In terms of regional power, for the PP it is a brutal advance. Above your best expectations. Aragon, The Riojathe Balearic Islands, Cantabria, the Valencian Community and even Estremadura pass to the right. The PSOE only holds out in Asturias, in Castilla-La Mancha and in Navarra. Perhaps also in the Canary Islands –although it seems very difficult–. Nothing else.
In the municipal ones, the photo to the left is not much better. Not only because of the victory in votes for the PP, but because of the municipal power that it is going to recover. The right will govern in all the Andalusian provincial capitals except perhaps Jaén. In all of Castilla-La Mancha, except Cuenca. In Zaragoza, in Valencia, in Valladolid… In all the main Spanish cities, except Barcelona and Bilbao.
The Trumpist tone of the campaign has undoubtedly been decisive in the electoral result. In the absence of an economic crisis, the PP put everything to “Txapote voting for you” and equally thick accusations of an electoral punch.
That the autonomic and municipal ones were so marked by the national debate has had this conclusion. The ‘everything is ETA’ has proven tremendously effective. But it has not only been useful to the PP. Vox doubles its votes and EH Bildu achieves its best historical result, becoming the main alternative to the PNV.
Most of the new regional presidents of the PP will have to agree with Vox, which is another of the great winners of this 28M. The extreme right is not only growing in votes, it will also grow in institutional power. And he makes it clearer than ever that, without his support, Alberto Núñez Feijóo will never be able to govern.
For the PSOE, the crash is historic. And to his left the result is not much better. Podemos accelerates its decline and remains outside the regional parliaments of Madrid, the Canary Islands, the Valencian Community and Cantabria. From 47 regional seats they go to 15: two thirds less than four years ago. In Barcelona, Ada Colau is still awaiting the result of the external vote but almost everything indicates that Trias will be mayor again – unless a tripartite is formed to make Jaume Collboni mayor, an agreement that ERC does not seem to want. Más Madrid remains the leading opposition force in the City Council and in the regional parliament, but it will face the absolute majority of the PP.
Is everything lost for the generals? Is this result the prelude to a PP and Vox government? Looking at today’s data, it is clear that Feijóo is the favorite to win. Not only because of the victory in votes of the right-wing bloc, not only because of the power of the regional and municipal power that will now play in his favor. The turnaround in Andalusia – which is consolidating as a new conservative fiefdom – is a very ugly indicator for the future of Pedro Sánchez and the first coalition government.
Despite everything, Feijóo’s victory is still not certain. Because it is not enough for the PP simply to win the PSOE by 750,000 votes and three points, as happened this Sunday. Most of their new governments, after these elections, will go hand in hand with Vox. But in the Congress of Deputies, marrying Vox closes the doors to any other ally. And even after this victory, it is not certain – although it is possible – that they will reach an absolute majority exclusively between the two.
On the right there is a very symbolic debate. A metaphor that she put on the table by former minister Ana Pastor and that serves to explain the current moment. Are we in 2011 or 2007?
In the municipal ones of 2011, the PP won the PSOE by ten points: 2.2 million more votes. And a few months later the absolute majority of Mariano Rajoy arrived.
In the municipal ones of 2007, the PP also won. For just over 150,000 votes. But a year later, Zapatero returned to rule.
In 2023 the victory of the PP over the PSOE has been by 750,000 votes. Much less than it would seem, if we only look at the shift in institutional power.
So yes: Feijóo is the favourite. But there are still options for the left to come back.
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