The titles of Acerinox so far this year they have accumulated a rise of 20 percent, although the last sessions were not particularly positive for the stock.
From the highs of early November at 14.19 euros, the price is down 13 percent and is at September lows.
Acerinox’s stock market penance began at the beginning of the month, after the presentation of results that analysts described as good but that the market did not appreciate and that were overshadowed by the possible impact of high energy prices in the coming quarters.
Caution in Acerinox due to the energy crisis
“The only unfavorable aspect is the evolution of energy prices, which leads us to be more cautious in reviewing margins for 2022,” said Bankinter analysts.
“The biggest headwinds are in Spain due to electricity and total cost increases in the energy mix,” added Deutsche Bank analysts.
Beyond this circumstance, the truth is that practically all the figures presented by Acerinox were green shoots.
Energy outshines green shoots
To begin with, the company registered its second best quarterly EBITDA in fourteen years, reaching 293 million euros, a figure that exceeded the 255 million expected by the consensus of analysts.
Given low inventory levels and strong demand, the company expects to exceed this EBITDA mark in the fourth quarter of the year.
Moreover, “for the first time in a long time, Acerinox commented that it has visibility” until the first quarter of next year thanks to the stainless order books and VDM, he said. César Sánchez-Grande, director of analysis of Renta 4 Banco.
In fact, as they calculate in Deutsche Bank, margins should rise in the fourth quarter, as annual contracts come into effect.
Unjustified stock market crash
With these figures in hand, the expert from Rent 4 Bank He anticipated other record results in 2022 and considered that Acerinox’s stock market crash “is unjustified.”
In this way, Sánchez-Grande recommended “taking positions” in the stock taking advantage of the falls and set a target price of 19.7 euros, which shows an upside potential of almost 80 percent, according to his valuation.
The economists at JP Morgan were also quite optimistic, whose target price of 18.25 euros shows an upward margin of 67 percent for Acerinox.
In his opinion, the higher energy costs in Spain (between 8 and 9 million euros per month) can be interpreted in an “incrementally positive” way, since they occur in a context of upwardly revised ebitda and where higher rates are expected. margins.
Analysts’ opinion moves along these optimistic paths. Moreover, after the latest drops, experts are clear that Acerinox has the potential to reach the highest levels of the last decade.
Potential birth of a long-term uptrend
Seeing the evolution in the Acerinox stock market, Eduardo Faus, Renta 4 Banco analyst, observed that during the last fifteen years, the price has been forming a delimited lateral range, with resistance between 12.70 and 13.75 euros (historical highs) .
“This type of long-term consolidation precedes very important long-term trends, so it is worth considering the potential for an upward trend to emerge in the coming years, as valuations are very positive,” Faus stressed.
The compression in the slow indicators “confirms the gestation of an important trend in the long term,” this expert recalled. In his view, investors should consider “buying the security”, especially if the security attacks the resistance of 12.7 euros.
For now, valuations continue to adjust upward. According to the consensus of analysts at Finanzas.com, the target price for Acerinox is 16.24 euros, which offers a rebound potential of almost 50 percent.