Monday, September 26

Activity halted its recovery in October and fell 0.8% monthly


For their part, “Manufacturing industry” (+ 4.9% year-on-year) and “Transport and communications” (+ 11.9%), were the two sectors with the highest incidence: they added 1.7 percentage points to the variation of the EMAE between both. On the contrary, the two sectors with the greatest drop in the interannual comparison for October were “Agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry” (-1.6% interannual) and Fishing (-32.6% interannual), which, together, they subtracted 0.2 percentage points from the variation of the total index, the agency remarked.

Analysis

“In October, the recovery dynamics of the economy slowed down, if the seasonal variations are observed. This would be associated both with the fact that various sectors have reached pre-pandemic levels, a high level of Installed Capacity Utilization, certain uncertainty around the agreement with the IMF (and the type of agreement) and the tightening of restrictions on the imports that were imposed in October ”, analyzed from the ACM consultancy.

“On the other hand, in sectoral terms, a continuity in the recovery is expected in various sectors during the following months, mainly focused on the sectors of ‘Construction’, ‘Hotels and Restaurants’ and’ Other activities of community, social and personal services ‘”, They added from the signature. And they detailed: “On the other hand, the outlook for the agricultural sector is positive due to the continuous rise in international prices, which contributes to activity in regional economies, partially offset by the negative impact of the current level of withholdings, of the exchange rate gap and certain forecasts of drought for the summer ”.

“The interruption of the expansion of the economy supposed a significant fall in October. Therefore, a monthly growth of 1% will be necessary in the last two months to reach the 10% average annual growth projected by the Minister of Economy ”, indicated for their part from the consulting firm LCG.

What’s coming

Meanwhile, facing the last months of the year, from ACM they indicated: “We expect November to partially recover the seasonally-adjusted decline of October, although, in any case, we project a quarter with a zero variation in seasonally-adjusted terms. This situation would show a drag of 1.8% for 2022. Under this scenario, we estimate growth of around 8.7% for this year ”.

“For the remainder of the year we expect very slight growth (if not zero on the average). However, the upturn in activity between June and September would allow a large part of what was lost last year to be recovered. If the recovery slows down, it would close with an average annual growth of 9.7%, which would be consistent with a peak-to-peak recovery (December / December) of 6.2%, ”added LCG.

“This recovery – they pointed out – would leave a drag of 2 percentage points for next year. In any case, the inconsistencies accumulated by the local situation (three-digit exchange rate gap, high inflationary inertia, delay in rates, minimum net reserves, among others), which must be resolved, act as a counterweight to a possible real growth in the economy. economy. Likewise, to these difficulties that the economy will have to face, a real salary is added that continues (and will continue) without growing for four years. Thus, we do not expect robust growth in activity in 2022, where the expansion of activity would rather go hand in hand with statistical carry-over ”.

For its part, according to the estimates published by the Central Bank in the Market Expectations Survey (REM), an expansion of 1.5% is projected for the fourth quarter of the year, so that the GDP would recover this year by 9 , 7% after the fall of 9.9% in 2020. Meanwhile, in view of what may happen in the first quarter of 2022, growth of up to 0.1% without seasonality was forecast.



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