Monday, October 3

Almirall: its new flagship drug anticipates double-digit increases

The price of Almirall picked up the progress of the laboratory’s flagship drug against atopic dermatitis with rises close to 1 percent.

Is about lebrikizumab, a novel treatment under development licensed by Elil Lilly a Almirall, which demonstrated significant skin improvement and itch relief when combined with topical corticosteroids in the third phase III study.

As the group explained, the study has met all primary endpoints and primary secondary endpoints.

What’s more, lebrikizumab demonstrated a safety profile consistent with previous studies already carried out in atopic dermatitis.

For Almirall, one of the IBEX 35 listed companies that has suffered the most from the market’s punishment, it may be an opportunity to resume the bullish path and re-establish the rebound.

Almirall’s star, at the gates of the market

Now, global marketing applications will be submitted in 2022. Almirall will sell the drug exclusively in Europe, while Eli Lilly will do the same in the United States.

Regarding this news, the analysts of Bankinter They explained that “it is positive and of great importance for Almirall”.

In fact, lebrikizumab it is one of the drugs that will boost billing in the coming years. Specifically, experts estimate that it could represent 13 percent of sales in 2025.

According to these experts, “the news indicates that the final approval could be achieved in 2022 and that sales would start earlier than expected.”

For the economists of Sabadell Bank, however, the news is “positive” but of somewhat more limited impact.

Thus, they argue that the drug had already shown positive results in August, so they already include the compound in their assessment (15.5 euros of target price) and saw no need to increase it due to this news.

The difficulties of the pandemic

So far this year, the shares of Almirall they barely registered a testimonial rise of 0.46 percent. Dermatology was not exactly the most favored medical specialty with the coronavirus.

“The discretionary nature of skin treatments leaves Almirall sensitive to the challenges of the pandemic,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analysts.

These challenges were felt in the results of the third quarter, where the weakness of the gross margin weighed down the EBITDA to 45 million euros, far from the 52.4 million expected by the consensus of analysts.

However, news such as lebrikizumab is what analysts are waiting to revitalize the price.

“Recent launches and pending approvals support top-line growth over the medium term,” said experts at Bloomberg Intelligence.

In his opinion, the approval of lebrikizumab it should help return profitability, although new approvals will also consume investments that “could weigh on margin for the next two years,” the sources added.

Almirall’s price stabilizes

Thus, the price of Almirall stabilized at around 11 euros after the recent falls.

“The first upside target would be 11.25 euros, but higher are 12.2 euros with action, which will be the next most important resistance,” he said. Manuel Pinto, XTB analyst.

This rebound target represents a bullish margin for Almirall of 11 percent. However, the target price calculated by the expert consensus is 14.5 euros, giving a rebound potential of 31 percent.

If you follow the bullish momentum, this is the roadmap to recovery. At the bottom, the support to watch is 10 euros, said Pinto.

Drilling has been attempted on a few occasions, and in fact, the last time it broke them down in July of last year, the value ended at 8.8 euros. Now, “if he loses them, he could go to 9 euros,” he said. Manuel Pinto.