Friday, January 28

Analysis of unemployment data for November and projection for December 2021


“In December, unemployment could fall by 18.6% year-on-year, with a total of 3.16 million unemployed at the end of the month.” These forecasts have been released today by the Adecco Group Institute, the Adecco Group’s study and dissemination center.

The Ministry of Labor and Social Economy has just announced the unemployment data for last month. In November, the rate of membership growth accelerated again. An annual increase of 3.8%, equivalent to 730,400 new jobs. The average number of affiliated with Social Security was 19.75 million people, a new all-time high. For eight consecutive months, there have been year-on-year increases in membership of over 3%, something that had not happened since June 2018.

Regarding the number of registered unemployed, it fell to 3.18 million unemployed people, (-2.28% month-on-month), 668,600 less than a year ago, but practically the same as in November 2019. In In the last 25 years until 2020, unemployment rose 21 times in November and only fell 4. This November 2021 has had a monthly drop of 2.3%, something unprecedented as it is a traditionally bad month for unemployment.

For the seventh consecutive month, the number of unemployed people accelerated its rate of reduction (-14.9% year-on-year; the largest decrease, at least, since 1996), especially among men (-18.1%; female unemployment down 12.5%).

It should be remembered that at the end of November there were still 125,600 wage earners in ERTE situations, who are not included in these data by definition. There are 65,000 workers less than a month before.

The increase in membership translated into a general increase in the signing of contracts. Thus, 2.02 million contracts were signed in November (+ 39.4% year-on-year). Those with the highest growth were the permanent full-time (+ 128%).

The Services sector once again led the increase in employment (+ 4.5% year-on-year). And as usual, salaried jobs grew more (+ 4.3% year-on-year) than non-salaried jobs (+ 1.7%).

In the words of Javier Blasco, director of the Adecco Group Institute: “The data on registered affiliation, unemployment and hiring continue to show unexpected strength, and reopen the debate on the connection between the evolution of the economy and the labor market figures. The sustained downward readjustment of growth forecasts does not seem to make a dent yet on the good evolution of employment “.

“Permanent employment has grown sixteen times more than temporary employment, with the question of whether it is related to the campaigns for the permanent conversion of the Labor Inspectorate and the exponential growth of public employment. For the sustained recovery to continue, it is necessary to favor a flexible and attractive regulatory framework for investment and job creation, promote active policies, bet on training and requalification, public-private collaboration against youth and long-term unemployment, as well as the correct absorption and execution of NextGen funds ”, adds Blasco.

For next month, the last of the year (which will analyze the data for this current December), the director of the Adecco Group Institute foresees that “In December there could be a slight increase in affiliation (something that has occurred in the last eight years), which would translate into a year-on-year increase of + 3.8%, with 19.78 million employed. Unemployment would drop 18.6% year-on-year, with a total of 3.16 million unemployed at the end of the month “

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