Friday, January 21

Argendollars returned to the levels of the end of last year

It should be remembered that the outflow of argendollars began, tenuously, from September with an amount of US $ 69 million and another US $ 230 million in October. So in the last quarter the fall in the stock of argendollars totaled US $ 1,057 million. In other words, the accumulated output hardly represented just over 6% of the total.

To have a dimension of what happened in these months, it is worth noting that last year between July and November, when there was a real run against the BCRA’s reserves that took almost $ 4.9 billion, the stock of argendollars lost between September and October of that year, US $ 2.506 million, which represented a cumulative fall of 16% of the total. And if we go back to 2019, in the previous election, between August and November of that year, the stock of argendollars suffered a fall of US $ 13,722 million, which represented the exit of 56% of total private deposits in dollars .

This can be considered, openly, a running flower. In parallel, the BCRA lost more than US $ 24,000 million in reserves in those months. Therefore, what is being seen these days, in the middle of a very muddy foreign exchange playing field, is the faithful reflection of the actions in the face of rumors. Of course, everything is tinged with the strong argument that the BCRA’s reserves are running out and the horizon is not clearing.

Bone scan

That is why it is worth pausing for a moment to analyze a kind of X-ray of argendollars to understand the profile of the holders of these placements. In this regard, it should be noted that 75% of these deposits are in savings banks, another 24% in time deposits and the rest in sight accounts. And of the current account placements, only 32% are deposits of more than one million dollars. In savings banks, large savers represent 24%, while in fixed terms they are approximately 28%. And when it comes to analyzing the size of these loans, it is clear that most of them are small and medium-sized savers (more than 70% belong to individuals), which in the jargon they call “chiquitaje” but that if it acts properly. demonized and en masse, it can generate serious turmoil in the financial system.

Most of the savings banks are for amounts less than US $ 3,000. For this reason, the main asset of the local market is the experience of the exit from convertibility. There is no longer a currency mismatch. The dollars deposited are loaned mainly to exporting companies and there is also a high level of reserve requirements. In this sense, the level of liquidity that the local financial system has to face any turbulence is unavoidable: between cash (dollar banknotes) in entities and dollars in the BCRA (reserve requirements), banks have practically the same stock as argendollars. So there shouldn’t be any kind of fear for deposits. Of course, in the anniversary month of the corralito 2001, ghosts fly over everyone’s mind. It is best not to make waves and avoid fake news.