Friday, September 30

Be careful with the banks

The week had a clear negative protagonist in the market: the banking sector. The big banks of the IBEX 35 have suffered strong cuts, although the palm has been taken by BBVA.

He suffered two hard blows in the last sessions. One when it announced that it was launching an takeover bid for the non-controlling part of its Turkish subsidiary Garanti and another during the celebration of its Investor Day, because it coincided with the decision of the Turkish Central Bank from lowering the benchmark interest rate to 15 percent and with a sharp depreciation of the lira, which falls 30 percent this year against the dollar.

“I am prudent with the banking sector,” he says. Investment analyst Josep Codina, in the podcast at the close of the European markets of “But not only because of BBVA’s operation,” he continues. “The ECB insists that it will not raise rates throughout 2022 and that makes the banking sector less attractive, which will have more problems to recover with its business.”

Other protagonists of the week

Codina also analyzed other protagonists of the week, such as TelefĂłnica, the euro and the drugstore and valued the first forecasts that are released for 2022 and in which it seems that there is unanimity: equities will continue to be the favorite asset.

Likewise, it reviewed the latest market sentiment surveys, especially that of institutional managers of Bank of America, that waste optimism. Surveys of retail investors also show similar results.

A few months ago, retailers and institutions were divorced, they did not share the same positive vision. But now they go hand in hand. Is this good or bad?

Codina says that if we all think the same, “the chances that we are wrong increase. You have to be very vigilant between now and the end of the year.”