- US consumer firms could see a $200 billion boost thanks to child tax credits, Cowen analysts say.
- Around 39 million households will start receiving up to $300 in monthly checks this Thursday.
- Stores targeted at lower and middle-income shoppers will see the biggest sales boost, they said.
Around 39 million households are expected to receive $250 or $300 monthly checks on Thursday as part of President Joe Biden’s child tax credit scheme – and analysts say it cause a boom for retailers, restaurants, and even cannabis dispensaries across the US.
According to a recent note from a group of Cowen analysts, US consumer companies can expect an annual boost from child tax credits of between $100 billion and $200 billion.
Walmart, Target, TJ Maxx, and Amazon are among the leading retailers set to benefit from this, they said, describing it as an “underappreciated catalyst for discretionary consumer spend.”
These checks will also kick in just as unemployment benefits, which were rolled out at the start of the year, fade out.
Read more: All your questions about the child tax credit, answered
Millions of households will receive a childcare tax credit, up to a maximum of $300 per child under the age of six, or up to $250 per child between the age of six and 17. These monthly payments start on July 15 and are set to run until the end of the year.
To receive the full credit, a couple’s household income must be below $150,000; a single parent or head-of-household filer needs an income of $112,500 or less.
These benefits are designed to fight child poverty. The Cowen analyst said companies targeted at lower and middle-income shoppers will see a sales boost because their customers will have more disposable income.
Cowen analysts expect an estimated $7.3 billion to $16 billion annual sales benefit for the grocery sector. Walmart, Target, and discount chain Grocery Outlet Stores will be among the big winners, they said.
Restaurants will also benefit from the extra disposable income. According to the research, Wingstop, Papa Johns, and Jack in the Box have the highest percentage of customers that are eligible for the tax credit.
Top destinations for back-to-school shopping such as Kohl’s, Nike, Foot Locker, and discount clothing chains such as TJ Maxx will also see an uptick, they said.
But it’s not just clothes and groceries — this extra income will likely boost tobacco and cannabis sales, they said.
“Demographic trends are supportive of the outlook that incremental spending from child tax credit payments will positively contribute to cannabis sales,” they said.