We have started the season of business results, both in the US where banks have published, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley… but also some consumer companies, P&G. What is the valuation of these published accounts and the forecast for the season?
At a general level, most companies are posting results above forecasts. Bank of America has outperformed EPS at $0.82 vs. $0.6 expected but underperformed on revenue. United Health also beating forecasts and revenue above estimates. Morgan Stanley has been underperforming in revenue. The season is not being bad, it is being positive at a general level. What can be expected for this quarter is that most of the companies in the energy sector exceed forecasts, it is expected that 86% exceed forecasts, in real estate 72%, industrials 50%, technology 50% and in the S&P500, 53% of companies could beat forecasts.
What is the situation of the American indices at the beginning of the year?
The S&P 500 is approaching relevant supports, in the area of 4,500-4,494 points, which was the last support on December 5 and the 200 average passes through there. lose because otherwise things would get complicated. We are going to see how the market takes the FED meeting next week because the market anticipates that it could be more aggressive with the rate hike and this will be key. If the Fed accelerates the rate hike, the S&P 500 will lose that support and it would be very negative. In resistance is the average of 50 sessions, at 4476 points as the first area to watch.
On the Nasdaq, we see how supports have been lost and this is not good news because the rate hike hurts these growth sectors. The index has been able to leave a double top, the side is broken at the bottom and this anticipates that it could have a further correction. The key support is at 14,380 points, which would indicate a change in trend.
In the Russell 2000 we also have a loss of relevant support, it lost it on Monday, and at the moment it does not look very good. Market breadth is deteriorating and this is not good news.
In Spain, the results season has also begun and Bankinter was the first to announce its figures with a profit of 1,333 million euros from the capital gains of Linea Directa. What graphic aspect does Bankinter have? Would you stay with some other bank?
Right now the sectors to look at are those that are benefiting from higher rates or high inflation. The energy sector is one, also basic resources and the banking sector, where spreads are increasing and this benefits the sector. Bankinter has just left resistance at 5.37 euros, it is quite overbought after the last section of rise that has been vertical. I believe that it is possible to take a break in the rise and then continue with the upward trend, which can be channeled., Within the sector, BBVA is approaching relevant areas close to completing the V-turn after supporting itself at 4.73 euros, Santander is in that process of improvement although it has a kind of bearish channel that it would have to overcome. If it breaks the 3.28 euros it could give additional bullish projection.
The year has started with declines for Bitcoin, which is trading around $41,800, breaking out of the sideways range at the bottom and is closer to the $39,550 target it warned us about in December. what is the short-term operation?
What is happening is the same as what is happening with technology, it is being penalized because it is still technology. The lateral range lost it at the bottom, it has a bearish theoretical objective activated by the break of the range in the previous lows, $39,000. What can you expect? That it remains within the downtrend and as long as it does not break the guideline that unites the lower highs and leaves a clear bottom, it is better not to be there.
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