Tuesday, January 18

Bitcoin price hasn’t peaked this cycle, experts say


Key facts:
  • The end of the bitcoin cycle would last until 2022, according to various analysts.

  • Estimates of the maximum cycle price range from $ 200,000 to $ 300,000.

The recent historical maximum of bitcoin of November 10, 2021, close to USD 69,000, represents an appreciation of 137% compared to the price at the beginning of the year and is 263% higher than the historical maximum of December 2017. However, bitcoin does not this time it would have reached its highest price in this cycle, according to the predictions of investors and financial executives. This conclusion is also clear from the metrics proposed by various cryptocurrency market analysts.

Ratifying that the $ 69,000 level will not remain as the highest in this cycle of bitcoin, the most recent prediction on the price for this month, ironically comes from a technical analysis by Citibank. This was leaked on Twitter on November 13, and commented on by CriptoNoticias. In a private communication to its clients, Citibank estimates that this month, bitcoin will reach the price of USD 318,315, more than five times its current value.

On the other hand, for the financial markets analyst, Carlos Maslatón, interviewed by CriptoNoticias, the upward momentum of bitcoin has not ended and could conclude the current cycle at USD 400,000. Maslatón explained in his analysis that he uses the Elliot wave model for his predictions. According to this analyst, the current cycle of bitcoin will close in two or three years, with several spikes and corrections that will culminate in a price of USD 399,759.

Another of the predictions about the price of bitcoin much commented on on social networks is that of the analyst PlanB, who uses the model Stock to Flow (S2F) or from reserves to flow. Although this model was moderately correct in previous months, it failed in the month of November for which it was anticipated that bitcoin would close at a level close to USD 98,000. The price drop in November prompted PlanB to try to justify its estimation error. Regardless, PlanB’s late 2021 prediction insists that bitcoin will surpass $ 100,000 this year.

The $ 300,000 bet for bitcoin

At the beginning of April, the analyst Willy Woo predicted that bitcoin would reach $ 300,000 by this December or by January 2022. Although he later lowered this estimate, Woo considered at that time that the end of the cycle would occur this month, under the premise that bitcoin cycles, coupled with the dynamics of halvings, lasted four years.

Last August, this analyst formally raised his thesis on the prolongation of the bullish cycle to 2022, as reported by CriptoNoticias. At that time a peak was being reached for bitcoin accumulation by long-term holders, suggesting a bullish price action later this year and much of 2022, according to their analysis.

More recently, Woo has changed his strategy. Instead of focusing on a certain price, it offers several models of the price of bitcoin, among which there are some that serve as a floor to the price, while others are above it and are eventually hit by the all-time highs.

Bitcoin price between Willy Woo’s price cap and average price models.

We choose two of the models: the average price of bitcoin and the so-called top price, which is obtained by multiplying the average price by 35. As can be seen, each cycle highs touch the price cap curve, so the cycle should advance further for that contact to occur. At the moment, the price cap is $ 203,000.

Seeking the top of bitcoin in 2022

While the idea of ​​the four-year cycle suggested expecting the maximum of this cycle this month, other analysts offer an alternative view.

Bitcoin would peak in this cycle in April 2022. Source: @bullfromsea / Twitter.

A horizontal line is drawn on this chart from an all-time high until it touches the price line. From there, the days needed to reach the next all-time high are counted. Repeating the procedure and assuming a certain waiting period for the next cycle,a new high is reached for April 18, 2022.

The analysis takes as a reference the metric of the retention waves, which shows in successive layers the percentage of bitcoin supply in the hands of different holder segments. It is assumed, due to the increasing trend of accumulation, that another maximum of the BTC retained will occur in 2021.

Some of the bitcoin price considerations go beyond the current cycle. For example, the founder of SkyBridge and former director of communications of the White House, Anthony Scaramucci, recommended that investors buy bitcoin because it is feasible that its price reaches USD 500,000 by 2025. In an interview commented by CryptoNews, Scaramucci highlighted that bitcoin is a very rare property.



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