Bitcoin users in Turkey are becoming millionaires as Bitcoin approaches a million turkish lire (TRY) for the first time.
Bitcoin has risen 22,500% against the Turkish state currency in the past five years, with no decline this month in Turkey, as bitcoin hits its high history against TRY.
As for other countries, bitcoin is a little below the historic high, trading at $45,900. But this is not the case in Turkey, where a difference of around $1,000 can be seen, meaning people are looking to buy more BTC.
Even so, the reason for this difference is not very clear, after all, Turkey’s markets are very open. To do arbitrage, you would need to send bitcoin, sell it for TRY and then sell TRY for dollars, buy BTC with USD and then repeat the process.
The likely problem is the duration of time to carry out TRY and USD conversions and shipments, period in which the TRY value may fall, canceling any arbitrage opportunity.
Something that suggests that arbitrage bots have better opportunities and therefore suggests that the demand for bitcoin in Turkey is higher than in other countries, with less inflation.
Bitcoin can act as a protective asset in cases like this where the dollar has appreciated 3 times against the TRY since 2019, when the exchange rate was 5 lira to 1 dollar. Now this conversion is above 16 lire, losing 50% of its value since July.
This is attributed to the central bank cutting interest rates when inflation is rising above 20%. There is no indication that this will change as Turkish President Recep Erdoğan clashes with financial markets.
The biggest bets of a bold bet
Erdogan faltered in 2019 when Bloomberg helped him change course, installing a central bank approved by global markets and with it the ladder of rising interest rates.
Inflation didn’t change much, however, getting even higher in 2019, so it changed course again, but that hesitation likely encouraged speculators to pressure the currency’s price with a speculative onslaught.
Now the choice is hard between continuing or giving up on these financial markets forever, presumably also betting that, once it has backed off once, it will back down again.
The temptation must be great to do just that, but the Turkish economy is bigger this year than last year, even quoted in dollars.
Exports are growing, including Turkey’s GDP is growing faster than China’s. Erdogan met Elon Musk this week as Turkey sent satellites into space. The Turkish media speaks of new factories, new economic alliances, a new optimism in force in contrast to our Western media obsessed with negativity. Meanwhile Erdogan himself speaks of an “economic war of independence”.
In a kind of very subtle nod, The Economist reminds us of a railroad connected to the Middle East in the days of our grandparents, just a century ago, when lifestyles in Bassora, Damascus, Gaza and Beirut were simpler. ‘ and the region documented religions and all peoples in peace and prosperity.
As the United States officially ends its commitments in Iraq, some are likely wondering if the East will rise again and even if it is growing.
With peace once again reigning, you would think that some of the best men in the region will have some grand plan to rebuild this road once more, so that trains will once again connect London to Baghdad.
In the case of Europe, in particular, you would think that this is a matter of vital importance, after all, peace and prosperity in your neighborhood can only mean peace and prosperity in your continent.
The US will not like it, however, as it loses dominance and Turkey’s recent troubles began when America sanctioned them, but a question to be revealed over time is whether such aversion to regional autonomy comes from the departed US or from a USA that is thinking about the future.
After all, in a region between China, Russia and Europe, it’s not clear that a carved Orient would be better than a sovereign, and if history has anything to say, it likely wouldn’t be.
Instead, perhaps it is time for an intellectual golden age in the East, when a people much more like each other puts aside the artificial differences that have already run their course and focuses on the finer things in life and God: prosperity first and foremost.
With this shift in focus, and considering just how much money some of them have, and just how many are educated abroad, and how low some aspects they get where they don’t even have trains, it’s not very difficult to see great potential like no other.
These movements in foreign exchange, therefore, are perhaps more tantrums from the past and perhaps a gamble that Europe, and particularly Germany, will repeat the mistakes of the past to the devastation of both continents.
Because looking to the future, the temporary fix can be irrelevant to the big game as a region grows and demons are banished and only angels remain in the game.
At present, minute acts have great consequences for the participants. Over time, it is likely that certain forces of prosperity will be unleashed, which makes much of what is to come, a rising east in particular, a very logical result of so many causes and effects.
In other words, Turkey is likely not to be burned anyway. It is more a matter of degree, and in this case it is very complex for us, as there is very little data at this stage to say whether, holistically, it should continue or retreat.
Rather, it’s easier to say that, anyway, this turmoil is a sign of a shifting trend in a long-forgotten region, after all they’re no longer destroying their railroads because there’s nothing left to destroy.
Fresh out of hell, your only way is to rise again.