Friday, December 3

Blue dollar under electoral tension: rose for the fourth week in a row and was one step away from $ 200

This week’s rise is in addition to the previous rise of $ 2.50 last week, which accumulated to the soaring of $ 8.50, and the advance of $ 2 registered in the previous two weeks.

Likewise, throughout October it grew by $ 11.50 (+ 6.2%) due to high inflation, exchange controls, fiscal deficit and firm country risk, which fueled devaluation expectations and put pressure on the currency, which usually has jumps abrupt with just a few operations.

Anyway, so far in 2021 the parallel accumulates an appreciation of $ 33 (close to 20%), well below the accumulated inflation of 2021, close to 40%.

Let us remember that during September, informal dollar it rose $ 4.50 (+ 2.5%), after posting its lowest rise since March in August, climbing just $ 1 (+ 0.6%). After hitting a low of $ 139 in early April, the parallel dollar increased $ 9 in April (6.4%), $ 7 (4.7%) in May, $ 11 (7%) in June, and $ 12.50 (+ 7.4%) in July.

What will happen to the blue dollar

Consulted by Ambit, Economists provided their forecasts and gave their opinion on the reasons that lead to the rise of the informal dollar in the Black Market of Foreign Exchange.

The director of the Center for Studies for the New Economy (CENE), Victor Cup, stated that “there is no economic basis” that explains the increase in the price of the dollar.

Beker pointed out that this is a “political price” due to electoral uncertainty and that a 180-degree change in expectations is required for the currency to be lowered.

Christian Buteler, financial analyst, in dialogue with Ámbito, I think that “In the last two weeks he has been jumping quite quickly and he has even been running behind the other dollars”However, he assured that “this is not an issue that increased demand a lot. The offer disappeared a bit and it seems to me that they are adjusting the prices of the blue to what the CCL and the free MEP are, which are above $ 200“.

Regarding what could happen in the short term, Buteler said that “it is possible to take a break this week. The trend is upward and will continue with the same old saws. Take a jump, go back a couple of pesos, lateralize a few weeks and go back up. As long as they fail to control inflation and lower the emission, obviously the blue trend is up. “” We are in Argentina and if there is one thing that is safe, it is to bet on the dollar. Two weeks ago it was $ 185, $ 15 can be accommodated upstairs but $ 25 I don’t see it, it’s going to rest a bit“, Hill.

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