Sunday, October 1

Bonds extended gains and Country Risk posted the biggest drop in 15 days

Investors, meanwhile, are closely following the slow negotiations with the IMF to reschedule a millionaire debt and the news about the increases in Covid-19 cases both in Argentina and in the rest of the world.

Despite the recent improvements in bonds, from Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI) they warned that prices indicate a probability of default in four years of 80%, lower than the 87% observed a month ago but still high.

“The titles are saying that Argentina will not be able to avoid a restructuring, no matter how much change of government there is, and this is related to the enormous demand for dollars that is going forward (we are talking, specifically, that the country needs about US $ 15. 900 million annual average). The agreement with the IMF is a necessary condition, although not sufficient, “they deepened.

At the same time, inflation-indexed bonds (CER) were coupled with optimism this Tuesday and also ended mostly with increases, with the exception of PR13.

On Monday the Ministry of Economy called the last tender for debt in pesos in 2021. This time it will make eight titles available to investors; a very short-term letter destined exclusively to Common Investment Funds, three letters at a discount (fixed rate), a bond at Badlar Rate + 5.25%, and three instruments tied to inflation.

Through these assets, the portfolio led by Martín Guzmán will seek to cover the $ 280,000 million that expire on the last day of the year. It is worth remembering that in the previous tenders the Treasury accumulated a net financing of more than $ 100,000 million. In this way, it seeks to reduce dependence on monetary issuance to finance the fiscal deficit.


Meanwhile, the S&P Merval erased its earnings at the beginning of the day and closed with a new fall, of 2.1% in pesos to reach 82,784 units, a minimum of six days.

Within the leading panel, the shares that lost the most were Aluar (-5.1%), Banco BBVA (-4.9%) and Banco Macro (-4.9%). On Wall Street, ADRs they did not show a clear trend.

Almost 70% of the operations in the equity segment of the local market were concentrated by Cedears of foreign companies.

In the context of a decline in the main indices of the New York Stock Exchange, the most traded Cedears showed both rises and falls. On the positive side, Despegar (3.5%), Vista (2.4%) and Disney (2.2%) stood out. At the other extreme, losses were led by mining company Vale (-3%), Alibaba (-2.3%), Nvidia (-1.5%) and Tesla (-1.5%).

Weekly financial activity in Argentina will run until Thursday, due to the December 31 holiday, on New Year’s Eve.