Monday, May 23

BPA: Pharmamar’s secret weapon


The results of the first nine months of 2021 meant for Pharmamar a blow to experts’ estimates for its earnings per share (EPS) with a drop of 10 percent, to 3.82 euros.

The fall could go further if you attend to reports such as the one from the broker Oddo BHF which estimates that the setback for the 2021-2023 period could reach between 30 percent and 50 percent, according to its analysis of the results of the biopharmaceutical.

Instead, Pharmamar clings to this metric to offer attractiveness at an extremely delicate time for the value and after a 2021 that some investment entities describe as a “transition” for the business.

The shares of the group of Galician origin have a Current EPS of 3.63 euros, the third highest of the entire IBEX 35.

Estimates for 12 months predict that it will fall to 3.37 euros, but a sufficient level to continue in the noble zone of the IBEX 35, being the best among his peers in the selective.

Rovi It currently offers a BPA of 2.03 euros and in a year it would reach 2.33 euros. Grifols account in this plot with 0.97 euros that would be reduced to 0.92 euros. Almirall it has a negative EPS, -0.12 euros, and would improve it to 12 months to 0.44 euros.


Pharmamar needs a shock in the results

Pharmamar has the capacity to improve its earnings per share with a shock in its results and the market consensus forecasts point to this year as key as they would be higher than those it may present in 2021.

Pharmamar ended 2020 with the best results in its history, earning 137 million euros with revenues of 270 million and an EBITDA of 163 million from extraordinary items from the license extension of Zepzelca a Jazz Pharmaceuticals.

Forecasts for 2021 show a drop in profit up to 66.6 million euros, 51.7 percent less than in 2020 and the ebitda would be reduced to 85 million, 47.85 percent less.

Income would be the item that would last the most, 200 million euros, 26 percent less than in 2020.

2022, turning point for Pharmamar

The figures would improve considerably in 2022, which would confirm the view that 2021 was a year of transition, as there were no extraordinary items, and that 2022 will be the year in which Pharmamar will be able to achieve figures that are closer to those of two years ago.

The profit calculated for 2022 would rise to 84.3 million euros, 26.5 percent more than in 2021. Ebitda would grow to 102.8 million euros, 21 percent more, and revenues would improve to 219 million euros, 9.5 percent more.

The key to the improvement for this year lies in the increase in the market penetration of the Zepzelca in the United States with entities such as Barclays estimating an annual growth of 10 percent.

The latest sales figures for the small cell lung cancer drug provided by Jazz Pharmaceuticals are for the third quarter of 2021, a period in which it recorded record revenue.

Pharmamar and Jazz toast to the first year of Zepzelca

Zezpelca reported revenue to Jazz Pharmaceuticals of $71.7 million from July to September, up 94 percent from a year ago when it began marketing the product.

The drug totals 182 million dollars in sales after one year on the market, which allows Pharmamar to boost its income from royalties and that the product is accepted in Europe through the sale for compassionate use.

The product is sold under the emergency use formula in the United States, pending full marketing authorization that would occur in 2025, while for Europe it would arrive a year later and while it can only be used compassionately.

The good evolution in results is the only way that is open to Pharmamar to improve its price, it loses more than 40 percent in one year, and thus disassociate itself from volatility at the blow of news or essay.

The shares of the biopharmaceutical remain anchored to news about the Aplidin against the coronavirus, despite the fact that its impact on results is limited, or progress in other tests or license extensions to third parties that do not have a direct correlation with the balance of the ‘biotech’.



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