Monday, January 24

Cars: what to expect from the market and prices for 2022

The projections are given in a framework of growing development of the activity of local terminals, driven by the agreements reached with the national government that allow better conditions for vehicle exports and by the concretion of investments that allowed the entry into the market of new models during 2021.

How the automotive market ends in 2021

The situation was not so auspicious for the concessionaires and the 0 kilometer sales, since throughout the year they demanded greater availability of import units to respond to a demand that remained active despite the increase in prices above inflation. .

In this context, it is expected that the year that ends in a few days will reach a patenting of 377,000 units, that is, 10.1% above 2020, which was 342,539 vehicles, despite the restrictions due to the pandemic.

A particularity that was recorded in those sales in 2021 was that the participation of national vehicles was 49%, some 14 percentage points higher compared to 35% in 2020, as a result of the import administration and the task of the terminals for supplying of local demand.

For 2022, from Acara a sales level of around 400,000 units is projected, with an increase of 6.1% compared to this year to end, with an identical market share between nationals and imports.

Regarding the production of automotive companies, the report estimated by the end of 2021 that the industry will reach 430,000 units, that is, 57% above 2020 when 272,634 vehicles left the terminals, an unusually low number due to stops obligate plants.

With a perspective strongly anchored in the external sector, for next year it is anticipated that the automobile, light and heavy vehicle industry as a whole will have a positive jump of almost 35%, reaching 580,000 units in the next 12 months.

In this upward performance, the growth of exports of 0 kilometers has preponderance, an item in which this year it is expected to close with a strong increase of 76% with 260,000 sales to the foreign market, compared to 147,605 last year.

For 2022, although the trend is moderating, it will be equally important according to the projection of 360,000 units to be exported by the industry, with an increase of 38.5% year-on-year; while the share of exports over production remains at around 60%, so six out of every 10 vehicles that leave national terminals are destined for the foreign market.

Another aspect that stands out from the report is linked to the composition of the external trade balance of the entire automotive sector, which in 2021 foresees vehicle exports for US $ 6,122 million and imports for US $ 2,282 million, with a positive balance of US $ 3,839 million.

But when the performance of the auto parts sector is incorporated, it is observed that with exports in 2021 for US $ 714 million and imports for US $ 5,580 million, a deficit of US $ 4,866 million will be reached this year, a red of such magnitude that it reverses the balance in favor of the sale of finished vehicles and shows a total deficit of US $ 1,027 million for the entire industry.

A similar scenario is anticipated for next year due to the limitations to develop the auto parts industry, so that despite the export jump of the finished units that will leave an estimated surplus of US $ 5,403 million, the deficit of the US parts segment $ 6,537 million will throw a red for the industry as a whole of US $ 1,134 million

Finally, the price evolution observed in the average tickets for the purchase of 0 kilometer stands out, well above the accumulated inflation of the last 12 months and the evolution of the exchange parity, the currency in which the sector is monitored.

In that sense, the Acara report warns that as of November of this year, the price increase registered in the previous 12 months reached 77% in dollars, going from an average ticket of US $ 10,640 to the current US $ 18,800.

In pesos, a similar behavior is observed with an increase of 92% between the ticket of $ 1,968,400 in November 2020 compared to the $ 3,778,300 of last November, with an average evolution of around 5% per month.

This price behavior affected the evolution of the minimum wages necessary to acquire a 0 kilometer, since the same vehicle that in November 2020 required 22 industrial wages a year later demands 36.1 industrial wages.

In this regard, the study identifies in particular the effect that the unsatisfied demand for new vehicles at dealerships had on prices, and the backwardness of values ‚Äč‚Äčthat the sector had been dragging down due to depressed demand in recent years as a result of the macroeconomic crisis. of 2018.