The Government speaks: “The opposition is bizarre, exaggerated, inflamed … The vocabulary to describe it is exhausted. In that state of anxiety and that level of tension that it projects, the legislature can be very long. Much more if the economy it begins to grow, as it will grow, above 7% “.
The opposition of the PP speaks: “The polls support our strategy. They give us even better than what was published and the trend is up. We have already consolidated the 140 seats. The key is for Vox to obtain a pyrrhic result and it is not necessary for it to enter in government”.
Between one and another reflection there are not only two voices of two leaders of antagonistic parties, there are very different views on the political situation, the recent changes in the Government, the strategy of the opposition and the sentiment of Spanish society. Both are a consequence of the demoscopy. You know, politics has long had more to do with tweets and polls than common interest and programs.
The first quotation mark is from a minister who is sure that the path of economic recovery, Sánchez’s new cabinet, the rain of millions of European funds, the exaggerated tension and, above all, the fear that the extreme right could entering the Government of Spain will prevent a victory for Pablo Casado, such as the one that conservatives already take for granted.
The second is from a leader of the PP, where they are already preparing – they have – the first Council of Ministers to be presided over by Pablo Casado. The right wing is convinced that the conservative vote can no longer be explained only by the stereotypical image of the Salamanca neighborhood and the progressive, by that of the Puente de Vallecas.
“There is no longer any objectification to the use of the Spanish electorate and the greatest demonstration was the result of Isabel Díaz Ayuso in Madrid last May”, affirms a leader of the PP, for whom politics is a matter of states of mind, the patterns have changed and the vote is no longer a reward to the opponent, but a punishment to the ruler. In other words: there is no merit of Casado, but wear of Sánchez in a hypothetical victory for the PP.
The fact is that the popular ones are sure that their leader is eating Pedro Sánchez’s toast, and not only because of the disappearance of Ciudadanos from the political map, but because the polls do not perceive an increase in the valuation of Casado, nor a consolidation of its internal leadership, but “a social fatigue, a deep rejection of the Government and an inexorable change of cycle” that could remove the left from La Moncloa.
“The rise in light means that Sánchez does not stop the wear and tear of the Government”
At a time when polls define politics and politics acts in relation to what it reads in polls, from the national headquarters of the popular ones they argue that “with the rise in the price of electricity, Sánchez has not managed to stop the wear and tear that he tried to stop with the changes he made in July in the Government “and that the decision not to renew the CGPJ and other constitutional bodies” has not weakened Pablo Casado’s position in the electorate. ” In this new course that begins legislatively next week, the PP is preparing to delve into the wear and tear of the Executive as a result of the receipt of electricity, with the certainty that it may be the lace that sinks social support for the president and without stopping, Of course, in that the exorbitant price of electricity is a collective failure consequence of the energy policy of all the governments of the last 20 years. The same invectives that are heard now from the popular ranks against the left coalition are identical to the proclamations that Sánchez used against Rajoy when he was head of the opposition and very similar to those that the latter made against Zapatero, but the memory is thin and the electorate does not understand the nuances when at the end of the month they have to face the electricity bill. Neither of strategies such as the one implemented from La Moncloa for ministers to teach the media about the difference between the rise in electricity in the wholesale market and the receipt of electricity, as if one thing was not a consequence of the other. .
In reality, what the PP detects is a state of grace in which nothing he does or says penalizes him, nor does flagrant breach of his constitutional obligations, such as his closure to renew the Council of Judicial Power, the Ombudsman or the Constitutional Court. It is useless for the political and media left to rave about putting black on white what is a real constitutional crisis caused by a party that aspires to be an alternative government.
Casado knows perfectly the meaning and judicial consequences of the fact that in the current governing body of the judges and in the Constitutional one there is a majority that does not correspond to that of the current Parliament, and that is why he has chained excuses to maintain the blockade. First was ERC’s condition as a parliamentary partner of the Government; then, the vice-presidency of Pablo Iglesias; then a meeting with Sánchez in La Moncloa and now, a written commitment to reform the law so that the judges are the ones who elect their colleagues instead of Congress, at the proposal of the professional associations. A system that has been in force since 1986, which neither Aznar nor Rajoy with absolute majorities ever modified, and which, far from being an “antidemocratic model” and “totalitarian” as various leaders of the right have come to say, has been endorsed by the Constitutional Court on several occasions.
“The blockade not only does not wear us out electorally, but the voter in the center, who does not understand nuances, sounds good that it is the judges who elect the judges, and not the political, as Casado has been saying since he was elected president of the party “, assures a national deputy, who adds as a weighty argument in order not to get out of the blockade, the seamless support of his media referents. “If Casado negotiates the renewal with Sánchez, the next day they crush us our main editorial support.”
There are still two years left for the elections and the leader of the PP already looks the winner. So much so that it has designed the National Convention of the party to be held at the beginning of October as an anticipated party of the expected victory, with a prior caravan through different cities, in which members of civil society and experts on different issues will participate to prepare the first Councils of Ministers that Casado has already planned.
It is useless that there are leaders in the national leadership who have reminded them that a state party like the PP cannot cause the blockade of constitutional bodies or that the worst thing about generating expectations that are not met is then managing frustrations. Deep down Pablo Casado knows that the generals of late 2023 or early 2024 will be his last bullet as leader of the right and that he will have no more opportunities. Another defeat on his scoreboard would immediately take him out of Genoa. For something, the movements for organic control in the territories have already begun, before even being summoned some regional congresses. The first in Madrid with Isabel Díaz Ayuso, after running as a candidate to preside over the regional organization at the turn of the summer, knowing that the conclave will not be held at least until 2022 and that that of the popular Madrilenians will surely be of the last.
The Madrid president has marked her own territory in front of the national leadership, which has been annoyed with the haste of the announcement, has included the mayor, José Luis Martínez Almeida, in the fight for control of the party in the region, and has made explicit that the model Today, with a presidency outside the institutional power, the organization has worked and fine-tuned. Casado has been clear about it because when talking about three references — Ayuso, Almeida and the current secretary general, Ana Camins — he comes to say that Sol’s tenant is not his favorite.
Ayuso doesn’t give a damn what García Egea, Casado or the sursum corda if it were to pronounce on the matter. He has the same self-confidence that Aguirre showed against Rajoy in his day and believes that his unquestionable electoral strength is enough and overflowing with the mayor and Casado if necessary. He does and says what he wants when he wants without dwelling on whether it is good or bad for the national leadership and will fight, with the consent or not of Genoa, in the regional congress. She knows that support from the media referents on the right that Casado fears losing if she sits down with Sánchez to renew the Judicial Power, she will have it whatever she does because she is the one with the institutional power, a budget of more than 20,000 million euros. and a rain of millions to distribute in aid, subsidies, public contracts and a lot, a lot of publicity.
Clearer: between Ayuso and Casado, the right-wing media have it clear. And the militants? That is a dilemma that Casado wants to avoid. At the moment, based on entrusting himself to the polls and the encouragement of the media referents of the right that he shares with the extreme right of Vox. And this, despite the fact that the dictatorship of the polls can sometimes distort reality and, what is worse, obscure the decision-making capacity of political leaders. Before it was the oracles and now, the soundings.