Wednesday, January 19

CCL dollar sinks more than 3% and approaches $ 215

For its part, the MEP fell 0.2% (43 cents) to $ 197.67, which leaves a gap of 94.7%, the lowest since November 15. The price of the dollar “stock” has been showing in recent days a behavior similar to that of the blue, which also falls on this wheel, to $ 197.

The market remains attentive to the evolution of the official exchange rate after the president of the BCRA, Miguel Pesce, said last week that the entity plans to accelerate the “crawling peg” when the inflationary process allows it. At the beginning of this week there was a greater devaluation compared to previous weeks, although the variation is still limited and it remains to be seen if the trend will continue in the near future.

The consulting firms and financial entities that participated in the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) carried out by the monetary authority project an average monthly increase of 4% for the exchange rate, between December and May.

The private sector expects the currency to “correct” next year what it did not “correct” this year. In that sense, he estimates that the rise in 2022 will be 55.3% (to settle at $ 161), when in October they expected it to rise 51.3%. For the same period, projected inflation is 52.1%.

On the other hand, investors monitor progress in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). A team made up of members of the Ministry of the Economy and the Central Bank have been in Washington since the weekend to seek to bring positions closer to the multilateral credit organization. Expectations are favorable for an agreement, which is reflected in the improvement in the price of Argentine bonds.

Meanwhile, the presentation of the government’s multi-year economic plan to Congress is awaited, which a priori was going to take place this week.

The dollar blue registers its third consecutive decline and remains at a minimum of five weeks, increasingly away from $ 200, according to a survey of Scope in the Black Market of Foreign Currency.

Conditioned by a higher demand for pesos, something common at this time of year, but also by the expectation of an agreement between Argentina and the IMF for the debt, the parallel dollar drops from $ 1 to $ 197.

Therefore, the gap with the wholesale exchange rate, which is regulated by the Central Bank (BCRA), stands at 94.1%, the lowest since October 21.

Official dollar

The official wholesale dollar rises nine cents this Thursday to settle at $ 101.51. So far this week it shows a rise of 35 cents (0.3%), the highest since the last week of April. However, market sources warn that this does not yet mean that there is a change in strategy in the update of the dollar.

The excess demand in the official exchange market caused the BCRA to sell off US $ 45 million on Tuesday.

Thus, in December the entity that Pesce leads has sold US $ 240 million in net terms. Even so, in the accumulated of 2021 the Central shows a net purchase of US $ 5.370 million.

The Gross International Reserves fell this day about US $ 50 million to US $ 41,249 million. In a context of growing devaluation expectations and unfounded rumors about a possible corralito for deposits in North American currency, the coffers of the monetary authority have fallen more than US $ 1.8 billion since the end of October.

“Private deposits in dollars ended last week at US $ 15,206 million. In the year they fell US $ 750 million, of which US $ 554 million left this last week as a result of false rumors about the corralito,” he said. financial analyst Christian Buteler.

Finally, this Thursday the savings dollar or solidarity dollar – the retailer that includes 30% of the COUNTRY tax, and a 35% on account of the Income Tax – increases 28 cents to $ 176.63.