Monday, November 29

CCL dollar touched $ 213 and the gap climbed to highs of almost 11 months

For his part, dollar MEP It rose by 2.3% ($ 4.52) to $ 204.52, with which the spread with the wholesaler, which is regulated by the BCRA, exceeded 100% for the first time since November 2020.

Sabrina Corujo, director of PPI, stressed that “the market is still waiting for a devaluation. It is not clear – and hence the volatility – if it will be via a discrete jump, or an acceleration of the crawling peg. But what is certain is that inflation running at levels of 3%, 3.5% or 4%, is not consistent with a sustained monthly devaluation rate of 1% -1.5%. In this, we believe that there is a coincidence “.

For the analyst, “the gap should narrow – an economy is known (another coincidence) does not work that way in the long term – and this could occur from a combination of a rise in the floor and a fall in the ceiling. From the ceiling, a scenario of lower Uncertainty, with a greater projection of future policies and agreement with the IMF, will allow it to be lowered or at least stabilized.We can say that this ceiling is the one that marks the CCL levels today of $ 215 / $ 216. From the side of the floor, what we are talking about. .. for example, an acceleration of the devaluation rate that the BCRA manages “.

blue dollar

The blue dollar fell back this Thursday after scoring two consecutive hikes, according to a survey of Ambit in the Black Market of Foreign Currency.

The parallel dollar fell 50 cents to $ 201, after trading for much of the day at $ 200.50. Despite the decline, the gap remained above 100%

In the last two wheels, the informal dollar had increased by $ 2, after the implementation of new regulations in the operation of financial dollars, and after falling on Monday, a day after the legislative elections.

On Friday, the blue dollar had lost $ 6.50 to $ 200, after hitting its highest face value of $ 207 on Thursday.

With that strong drop, the parallel dollar accumulated a rise of only $ 1 last week. Recall that in the last four weeks, it had registered increases of $ 1.50, $ 2.50, $ 8.50, and $ 2.

Likewise, throughout October the informal dollar rose $ 11.50 (+ 6.2%) due to high inflation, exchange controls, fiscal deficit and firm country risk, which fueled devaluation expectations and put pressure on the currency, which it tends to make sudden jumps with just a few operations.

In any case, so far in 2021 the parallel accumulates an appreciation of $ 35 (close to 20%), well below the accumulated inflation of 2021, above 41%.

Let us remember that during September, the informal dollar rose $ 4.50 (+ 2.5%), after posting its lowest rise since March in August, climbing just $ 1 (+ 0.6%). After hitting a low of $ 139 in early April, the parallel dollar increased $ 9 in April (6.4%), $ 7 (4.7%) in May, $ 11 (7%) in June, and $ 12.50 (+ 7.4%) in July.

Official dollar

The The Central Bank assisted the market demand for foreign exchange with US $ 70 million when the volume remains well above the usual trading averages. In this way, it cuts a mini streak of two wheels without a seller balance.

“During the day, a strong presence of imports is still observed in a context of postponement of liquidations of cereal exports (they are entering about US $ 65 million per day vs. the usual US $ 130 million)”, highlighted market sources.

The red of the month reaches US $ 700 million and, given the current restrictions, It has room to end the month with a slight recovery that allows it to show a result that is not as bulky as that of last September (-u $ 950 million).

Simultaneously, the wholesale currency advanced six cents to $ 100.43, under the strict regulation of the BCRA. In a round with a significant volume traded, the US currency once again operated around the regulation values ​​set forth for today by the Central Bank. Prices moved with a lower fluctuation than yesterday and always respecting the parameters arising from the official regulation.

The minimums were noted shortly after the operations began at $ 100.39, four cents above the previous end. As in previous days, the authorized demand exercised dominance in the development of operations, driving increases in the values ​​that reached a maximum of $ 100.42 in the middle of the wheel.

The The dollar today rises one cent this Thursday to $ 105.95 -without taxes-, according to the average of the main banks in the financial system. In turn, the retail value of the US dollar at Banco Nación remains at $ 105.50.

For its part, the savings dollar or solidarity dollar – which includes 30% of the COUNTRY tax, and 35% on account of the Income Tax – rises two cents to $ 174.82.

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