Thursday, August 18

Despite the devaluation in Turkey, the BCRA sustained the crawling peg


Brian Torchina, economist at PGK Consultores, pointed out that the “crawling” that the BCRA practiced in the last round “is still tepid” although it goes in the direction expected by the market.

This happened despite the fact that the international climate is not helping the authorities to slow down with the corrections. Yesterday it was learned that the Turkish lira had lost about 13% against the dollar in one day after a drop in interest rates. The dollar was sold at the rate of one unit every 12.67 lire, a currency that accumulated a 60% drop in 12 months.

The prospect of an increase in interest rates in the United States to counteract the increase in inflation in that country, in principle, generates instability in emerging currencies. In 2018, in a similar scenario, the Turkish lira depreciated and the peso fell after that. For this reason, for some operators, this signal generates noise.

Speaking about the global context, Marina Dal Poggetto, from EcoGo, stated that “after the pandemic, what you see is inflation of goods, and all the things that previously cost increasingly cheap, now cost more and more expensive.” The economist said that “the level of madness we have in the local scenario is unbearable” and criticized the government for not having closed an agreement with the IMF much earlier “when the body was hyperlax and the program we would have wanted could have been agreed upon.” .

Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Economic Advisors, considered that although Argentina “has nothing to do with Turkey” since there is no strong movement of capital between the two countries “it seems that it is a reflex action for 2018” . “That speaks, however, that the world can be complicated. There is a lot of inflation at the level of developed countries and doubts about how central banks are going to behave. If they cut monetary policy more than expected, that always generates movements in emerging markets, but Argentina does not participate. It can generate some turbulence at the level of the Stock Market and the markets and then impact on alternative dollars ”, he explained.

In this context, the BCRA managed to buy some US $ 20 million and cut a two-day streak with sales to attend the demand for foreign currency in the wholesale market.

Parallel quotes

In the informal segment, the so-called “blue” dollar fell 50 cents and closed at an average of $ 201 per unit. In the stock market, the dollar counted with settlement (CCL) rose 2.2%, to $ 218.25, while the MEP advanced 1.1%, to $ 205.82, in the final section of the wheel.

The saving dollar, with the surcharge of 30% COUNTRY tax and 35% on account of the Income Tax, ended at $ 174.95.

The volume traded in the cash segment was US $ 534 million, in the futures sector of the Electronic Open Market (MAE) there were transactions for US $ 141 million and in the Rofex futures market US $ 367 million were traded.



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