Thursday, December 8

Dollar and inflation in 2022: the forecast of analysts


Those who more accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons project that the average nominal exchange rate for the end of December 2021 will reach $ 103.2.

Analysts lowered their monthly projections for the nominal exchange rate, expecting it to stand at $ 161 by the end of 2022.

Meanwhile, 2021 is closing with exchange rate tension, with rises in official dollars and the blue dollar.

Financial analysts are seeing it in figurines to try to forecast what will happen to the main financial variables in 2022. Above all, in what has to do with the versions of financial dollars such as the MEP or the CCL, which are highly subject to government decisions that are not entirely predictable.

In general, they are working on four scenarios: one is that the crawling peg works with a correction of 15%; another in which crawling works and a “sui generis” split is added, such as allowing export operations to be settled through Cash with Settlement. A third would be that there is a devaluation “jump” and a fourth, a combination of crawling with a subsequent jump, in case that gradual policy does not work. All this starts from the idea that an agreement is reached with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

According to Market Expectations Survey (REM) prepared by the Central Bank among the main consulting firms and foundations, next year’s inflation should close at 52%, the Official Dollar at $ 161 and the Badlar rate, which is the average fixed-term interest of more than $ 1 million, would close at 36.45%.

The administrator Fondos Quinquela, for its part, proposes for the most optimistic scenario of all that the dollar will rise 45% in 2022, the IPC, 50%, the Badlar, 34% and the dollar CCL would close with a rise of 47%.

Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, from Balances, It works on a scenario in which an understanding is achieved with the international credit organization and that the monthly devaluations of the BCRA following inflation, give results. He points out that “anticipating financial dollars is very difficult, but it can be said that the gap will be at 75%.” For Equilibra, the official dollar would close as of December 2022 at $ 160, the Badlar rate at 36%, and inflation would rise 56%. “It may be that there is an acceleration of crawling at the beginning and then it would be in line with inflation,” he told Ámbito.

The second scenario, according to Quinquela, it is the inclusion of a doubling. In that case, the official dollar would grow 45%, the CPI, 58%; the Badlar would rise 39%, and the CCL only 13%. In the event that there was a devaluation jump, the variables would move 70%; 58%, 41% and 28%, respectively. The fourth hypothesis, the one that proposes a monthly devaluation at the beginning with a later jump, indicates that the dollar rises 75%, the IPC, 63%, the Badlar, 37% and the CCL, would barely rise 28%. The average of the four scenarios would result in an official dollar of $ 170 as of December 2022; the CPI, at 58%; La Baldar would close at 38.3% annually and CCL at $ 285 with a 30% rise.

About, Javier Marcus, economist and business chief of Southern Trust, He pointed out that it is to be expected next year “an increase in the exchange rate without surprises but that it moves at a higher speed so as not to delay the real exchange rate.” Taking into account that inflation will not be less than 45% for this consultancy, Marcus points out that “this gives the clue of how the crawling peg of the exchange rate will be and the rise that the rates will require according to the recommendations. From the bottom”. The economist considered that it can be assumed that both inflation, the interest rate and the dollar “will be accommodated so as not to generate delay and accelerate the liquidation of exports.” On the other hand, he estimated that “in relation to the CCL dollar, it can be said that it is at high values, equivalent to $ 4 in 2002, so the situation can be sustained without shocks, it should fall in real terms.” Marcus warned that “if there is no agreement or if there is an external shock such as a large rise in international rates, a drop in soybeans or greater activity problems in Brazil, the scenario may be totally different. A less likely scenario but one that affects the expectations of economic agents ”, he indicated.

Inflation 2022

In relation to prices, the specialists estimated that for November 2021 inflation stood at 3.1% per month, as is than the average of the TOP-10 of the best predictors of inflation.

Let us remember that for October 2021 the median of the estimates of those who participated in the REM survey it suggested a monthly inflation of 3.2%, while the data observed in said month turned out to be 3.5%.

For their part, they projected that retail inflation for 2021 will be 51.1% yoy, that is, 0.8 percentage points (pp) higher than the previous survey. Those who best predicted this variable for the short term (TOP-10) expect an average inflation of 51.2% yoy (0.2 pp higher than the previous survey).

Likewise, REM participants they raised the inflation forecast for 2022 by 3.2 points to 52.1% yoy

PBI

Regarding economic activity, those who participate in the REM expect a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2021 of 9.7%, 1.4 pp more compared to the previous survey, after registering a 9.9% yoy fall in 2020

The TOP-10 of those who best predicted economic growth suggests an average GDP increase for 2021 of 9.8% (+1.2 pp compared to the previous survey). Regarding the seasonally adjusted quarterly variation of GDP, the estimate for the third quarter of the year was corrected upwards with an estimated rise of 4.2%, which was 1.6 pp higher than in the previous survey.

The growth estimate corresponding to In the fourth quarter of the year, it rose 0.9 pp to 1.5%. Meanwhile, REM participants, reduced growth for the first quarter of next year by 0.3 pp to 0.1%

Badlar rate

For December 2021, those who participate in REM predicted a BADLAR rate of private banks monthly average of 34.50%, somewhat higher than that registered in the month of November (34.18%).

There is evidence of a growing trend in the monthly forecasts until the end of next year, with the rate rising to 36.45%. Meanwhile, those who best forecasted the interest rate for the short term expect, on average, that it will be at 34.37% by the end of 2021.



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