“After the elections there was a slight downward trend in the price of Blue, but since the second half of December it has reverted and remains up. Today it is already operating at the peak values it reached in November. The collection of the bonus in a context where you cannot buy more than $ 200 per month for savings in the formal market, surely explains part of the dynamics. And beyond that specific data, the recovery in the level of activity as well, “he expanded on the causes of this jump.
Caprarulo also stressed that “it is the market where a large part of the informal sector of the economy dollarizes its profits” and in terms of what is projected in the short term, he anticipated that “There is still no reason to project a drop in the gap between the parallel prices of the dollar. In the future, the closing of the agreement with the IMF and the deepening of the change in the devaluation pattern that began in December may be factors that contribute to its reduction “.
Looking to 2022, other specialists also warn that its performance will depend on several factors, including negotiations with the IMF and the strategy regarding the management of the official exchange rate.
Walter Morales, president of Wise, told this medium that if the Government reaches a point in common with the institution led by Kristalina Georgieva, the blue dollar will peak next year between $ 245 and $ 255. For his part, Juan José VasquezCohen’s Chief of Strategy alerted a price closer to $ 300 if an agreement is not reached, taking into account that the expected annual inflation according to the REM is 52%.
It should be remembered that in the first fortnight of December the blue dollar had fallen to $ 195.50 (December 13), conditioned by a greater demand for pesos, something common at this time of year, before the payment of the Christmas bonus, plus the need of cash before the festive dates of Christmas and New Years. In the accumulated of the whole month, the blue registers an ascent of $ 7.50. In addition, In the accumulated of 2021 the parallel dollar shows an appreciation of $ 43 (above 25%), well behind the accumulated inflation of 2021, above 45%.
After hitting a low of $ 139 in early April 2021, the parallel dollar increased $ 9 (+ 6.4%) in the fourth month of the year, $ 7 (+ 4.7%) in May, $ 11 (+ 7%) in June, and $ 12.50 (+ 7.4%) in July. In August, meanwhile, it posted its lowest rise since March, climbing just $ 1 (+ 0.6%), and then going up $ 4.50 in September (+ 2.5%), $ 11.50 (6.2%) in October and $ 4 (2%) in November.
The savings dollar or solidarity dollar -which includes 30% of the COUNTRY tax, and 35% on account of the Income Tax- It operates unchanged at $ 178.43.