Monday, March 27

Dollar: the BCRA sold US $ 100 M (negative balance of US $ 460 M in the month)

In this context, the official dollar rose 13 cents yesterday, to $ 108.29 -without taxes-, according to the average in the main banks of the financial system. In turn, the retail value of the currency at Banco Nación ended unchanged at $ 107.75.

Meanwhile, the savings dollar or solidarity dollar -which includes 30% of the Country Tax, and a 35% on account of the Income Tax- amounted to 22 cents to $ 178.68. It is about $ 29 below blue.

The CCL dollar – traded with the Bonar 2030, the most liquid bonds in the financial market – rose by 44.1% ($ 61.87) in the year to $ 202.13, bringing the gap with the wholesale exchange rate that regulates the BCRA jumped 30 points, from 66.7% to 96.7%. In turn, yesterday it fell 0.6% (- $ 1.31).

For its part, the MEP or Stock Exchange dollar rose 41.3% ($ 57.81) annually to $ 197.80, with which the spread with the wholesale dollar reached 92.5%. On the day it rose 0.9% ($ 1.77).

Finally, the blue dollar closed 2021 with a cumulative increase of 25.3% ($ 42), almost half compared to the inflation estimated for the same period. Even so, the gap with the official exchange rate remained above 100%, a level considered difficult to sustain over time by most analysts.

Despite falling $ 1 in the day yesterday, the informal dollar registered a rise of 3.2% in December (higher than the previous month) to end the year at $ 208. Therefore, the spread with the wholesaler, which is regulated by the Central Bank (BCRA), was 102.4%.

Market analyst Salvador Di Stéfano explained in a dialogue with this medium that the recent rise in blue is largely explained by “the great liquidity due to Christmas sales, because there is no merchandise to replace and because entrepreneurs seek to protect themselves from future increases. of prices ”, raising the demand for the US currency.

The market outlook for next year depends largely on developments in the negotiations with the IMF. Walter Morales, president of Wise, told Ámbito that from the consultancy they handle two scenarios, depending on whether or not a pact with the organization is reached or not.

If the Government reaches a point in common with the institution led by Kristalina Georgieva, the financial advisor envisions a blue dollar between $ 245 and $ 255 by December 2022, which would imply an annual increase of between 20% and 25%, approximately . “It is not that expectations are going to improve significantly, but they will do so slightly,” he deepened.

With a similar look, the economist Gustavo Ber maintained in dialogue with this medium that an agreement with the Fund that “not only postpones the bulky maturities, but also reaches consensus on an economic roadmap to correct economic imbalances, could reach narrow the gap ”.