Wednesday, October 5

Dollar: the four scenarios that the market is considering


According to Market Expectations Survey (REM) prepared by the Central Bank among the main consulting firms and foundations, next year’s inflation should close at 52%, the Official Dollar at $ 161 and the Badlar rate, which is the average fixed-term interest of more than $ 1 million, would close at 36.45%.

The administrator Fondos Quinquela, for its part, proposes for the most optimistic scenario of all that the dollar will rise 45% in 2022, the IPC, 50%, the Badlar, 34% and the dollar CCL would close with a rise of 47%.

Possibilities

Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, from Balances, It works on a scenario in which an understanding is achieved with the international credit organization and that the monthly devaluations of the BCRA following inflation, give results. He points out that “anticipating financial dollars is very difficult, but it can be said that the gap will be at 75%.” For Equilibra, the official dollar would close as of December 2022 at $ 160, the Badlar rate at 36%, and inflation would rise 56%. “It may be that there is an acceleration of crawling at the beginning and then it would be in line with inflation,” he told Ámbito.

The second scenario, according to Quinquela, it is the inclusion of a doubling. In that case, the official dollar would grow 45%, the CPI, 58%; the Badlar would rise 39%, and the CCL only 13%. In the event that there was a devaluation jump, the variables would move 70%; 58%, 41% and 28%, respectively. The fourth hypothesis, which proposes a monthly devaluation at the beginning with a subsequent jump, indicates that the dollar rises 75%, the IPC, 63%, the Badlar, 37% and the CCL, would barely rise 28%. The average of the four scenarios would result in an official dollar of $ 170 as of December 2022; the CPI, at 58%; La Baldar would close at 38.3% annually and CCL at $ 285 with a 30% rise.

About, Javier Marcus, economist and business chief of Southern Trust, He pointed out that it is to be expected next year “an increase in the exchange rate without surprises but that it moves at a higher speed so as not to delay the real exchange rate.” Taking into account that inflation will not be less than 45% for this consultancy, Marcus points out that “this gives the clue of how the crawling peg of the exchange rate will be and the rise that the rates will require according to the recommendations From the bottom”. The economist considered that it can be assumed that both inflation, the interest rate and the dollar “will be accommodated so as not to generate delay and accelerate the liquidation of exports.” On the other hand, he estimated that “in relation to the CCL dollar, it can be said that it is at high values, equivalent to $ 4 in 2002, so the situation can be sustained without shocks, it should fall in real terms.” Marcus warned that “if there is no agreement or if there is an external shock such as a large rise in international rates, a drop in soybeans or greater activity problems in Brazil, the scenario may be totally different. A less likely scenario but one that affects the expectations of economic agents ”, he indicated.



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