Ukraine’s GDP will contract by 20% in 2022 but could rise by 23% in 2023 if a ceasefire is brokered quickly, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in a forecast issued on Friday.
The EBRD said that if a ceasefire is signed “within a couple of months,” and followed quickly by a major reconstruction program in Ukraine, it “will bring GDP by end-2023 back close to, but still below, pre-war levels. “
The EBRD also said sanctions on Russia were expected to remain “for the foreseeable future,” and forecast that Russia’s economy would stagnate in 2023 after a sharp drop in 2022. (Reporting by Natalia Zinets, Writing by Max Hunder, Editing by Timothy Heritage)