Professor at UP and UNAM. Specialist in electoral matters.
On Sunday, June 5, the voters of Aguascalientes, Durango, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo and Tamaulipas have an appointment with history to renew governorships, in addition to 39 municipalities in Durango and 25 deputations in Quintana Roo. They are electoral processes that will mobilize just over 11.5 million voters and will require the installation of about 21,100 voting booth boards.
This year the elections imply multiple challenges for electoral institutions, parties, citizens and governments. These are six states governed by the PAN, PRI and PRD, none by the official party, which already governs another 18. Morena risks nothing, on the contrary, she has much to gain, and although nothing is written, demographic predictions indicate that could obtain victory in at least three and maximum five, given that in Aguascalientes the PAN has the majority preferences.
The doubt is in Durango where the results of 2021 did not entirely favor the ruling party, but the polls indicate that they could win, while in Oaxaca and Quintana Roo they obtained practically all the positions and their pre-candidacies are favorites, the same as in Hidalgo where they have grown up; in addition to the fact that the opposition parties will not endorse their alliance in all states. Tamaulipas has the wear and tear of Cabeza de Vaca’s previous litigation for his impeachment and the accusations against his government. In short, the table is set to see how much the territorial hegemony of Morena and her allies increases.
The ongoing processes take place in the fourth year of the president’s mandate, who, beyond the speech, will have to review to what extent the campaign commitments he assumed have materialized, to what extent his government is really different from the previous ones, and although he will have the advantage of starting the inauguration of his great works, he will also have to face the evaluation of the social justice model that he designed and implemented in the country.
The organization of these elections occurs at the same time as the revocation of the mandate, which ceased to be a collective construction of a citizen character to become a priority objective of the president, who continues to be the author of the agenda for daily debate. It is he who sets the tone for discussing issues and the time when it is done. The recall advances despite the fact that the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation has not resolved two key challenges: the controversy and its extension filed by the INE on the denial of resources approved by the majority fraction of the deputies and the one that, in turn, , interposed legislators of the PRI, PAN and PRD on the constitutionality of the question included in the Federal Law of Revocation of Mandate.
The recall constitutes the ideal scenario to maintain the conflict as a political strategy of the government and its party, to nurture the polarization that annuls the opponents, detracting from their legitimacy before the citizenry, prevents the construction of agreements and imposes unilateral decisions on national problems. In addition, it is a mechanism that keeps the president campaigning towards 2024 in the way he decides, with a broad social base and nullifying the constitutional limits established to prevent the interference of public servants in the elections, as happened in 2021.
Another effect is in the consequences that could be devastating for the electoral system. If the recall has all or fewer boxes, if there is low participation on Palm Sunday, April 10, the INE will be held responsible and will be the culprit. Whatever the result, it will be a catalyst for the regime to promote one of the reforms that it intends to be emblematic, the electoral one.