Correspondent in Paris
France is electorally consolidated as a conservative country, very conservative or ultra conservative. But for the first time in many years Marine Le Pen it regresses in the intentions of esteem and vote in the first round of the next presidential election.
Marine Le Pen, the president of Agrupación Nacional (AN, former National Front, FN), won the 21.3% of the votes in the first round of the 2017 presidential elections, eliminating the conservative, communist and environmental candidates, before being defeated by Emmanuel Macron in the second and decisive lap.
The French extreme right was already, then, for many years, the party most voted by the workers. During the last four years, Marine Le Pen continued to grow in voting intentions, becoming listed as a possible president of France.
During the months of June and July last, Marine Le Pen had 28% of the voting intentions in the next presidential election, set for the 10th and the April 24. Two months later, the president of AN, the historic formation of the French extreme right, has only 18% voting intentions. He has lost 10 points in just two months.
A destabilizing figure for Marine Le Pen
Marine Le Pen appears to be the victim of significant burnout and the emergence of an eventual ultra-conservative candidate, Eric Zemmour, which has 11% voting intentions, even before having confirmed its foreseeable candidacy for the presidential election.
Polemist, essayist, author of millionaire sales books, convicted on several occasions for crimes of “incitement to racial hatred”, Éric Zemmour has become a political revelation that can destabilize all the French rights.
The son of Frenchmen of Jewish confession, fled from Algeria, after the war of national liberation, Zemmour was born in Montreuilt (very multicultural Parisian periphery), in 1958, and was educated in the Jewish religious tradition. He speaks Hebrew ritually frequented several Parisian synagogues, until the early years of this century.
A very combative journalist, his political career begins with the publication of very controversial essays, such as ‘French suicide’ (2014), where he began to outline his French thesis: ‘The destruction of France, supplanted by Arabs and blacks’. ‘France has not said its last word’, his latest book, published this same month of September, sold 80,000 copies in just four days.
The intention is given to Zemmour to stand as a candidate for the presidential election. And the opinion institutes begin to quote him, even before the confirmation of his eventual candidacy.
Before even being a candidate, Zemmour has between 10 and 11% voting intentions. Practically double that Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, Cadiz by birth. Such voting intentions can destabilize Marine Le Pen’s candidacy and potential traditional conservative nominations.
Emmanuel Macron remains the absolute leader in voting intentions, in the first round: 23% of possible votes. Followed by Marine Le Pen (18% voting intentions) and Xavier Bertrand (14% voting intentions), the best-valued candidate on the traditional right. With 10/11% voting intentions, Zemmour, has more voting intentions than the candidate from the extreme left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (of Murcian family origin), which only has 7 to 8%.
It is a political, electoral landscape, in the midst of a deep metamorphosis: the traditional right seems to be a victim of its divisions, with too many presidential candidates; the traditional extreme right seems to lose ground; the left continue sunk in an undoubtedly historical crisis. The only novelty is the appearance of a possible ultra-conservative candidate.