Thursday, July 7

Escrivá anticipates that the job recovery accelerates in June: he estimates some 222,000 more affiliates

Minister José Luis Escrivá has advanced this Friday a great job creation in June, even higher than that of May, which already had positive data. The head of Social Security has stressed that the increase in employment will be about 222,000 people on average, but above all he has highlighted the data of about 190,000 more affiliated people if it is taken in seasonally adjusted terms.

In an appearance that is out of the ordinary, the minister has appeared before the media to report on how the affiliation is progressing until the middle of the month, as well as the number of people in ERTE and what are the forecasts of the Ministry in employment for the June closing. The Ministry of Social Security will provide this intra-monthly estimate from now on, in the middle of the month, Escrivá has communicated.

The forecast of the Ministry for the end of the month is 19,254,072 members of Social Security, discounting seasonality and the calendar effect. “This data represents an acceleration with respect to the month of May, in which the number of affiliates grew by 45,000 people in these terms”. In June, the Ministry estimates that the data will reach around 190,000 people.

By activity branch, the largest increase forecast for the whole of June is in services, with a forecast of some 174,000 more affiliates. It would be followed by job growth in construction, with around 9,000 more than in May, according to Escrivá’s calculations. For its part, in industry, the increase would be more than 5,000 employed persons.

Regarding what has already happened until the middle of the month, the minister has highlighted the “positive behavior of the hospitality, commerce and recreational activities sectors”, which accumulate a growth of almost 160,000 affiliates until June 16, “almost double that of which was usual in the same period in the years prior to the pandemic “, underlines the Social Security.

Escrivá explained that “the recovery of employment is being much faster than in the previous crisis”, despite the fact that the initial fall was much more intense. “We are currently 200,000 affiliates from recovering the levels of February 2020, when the previous crisis took more than a decade,” the minister stressed about the seasonally adjusted data. In the case of the self-employed, the affiliation already exceeds the previous to the pandemic, he recalled.

On the open debate in the Government about the increase in the minimum interprofessional wage (SMI), Escrivá has preferred not to publicly position himself after questions about it from journalists. Today has been presented the report of the committee of experts dependent on the Ministry of Labor, with the participation of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy, which proposes to the Executive to increase the SMI in 2021 between 1.3% and 2%.

76,000 fewer people in ERTE until the middle of the month

José Luis Escrivá has highlighted that the activation of workers in ERTE “has accelerated” since the beginning of June, when the last extension of the temporary employment regulation files came into operation, although he has acknowledged that less than expected by the Ministry. The person in charge of the Social Security defended a model of aid to companies in ERTE that grants more exemptions in the contribution to workers who go on to the activity, with respect to those who remain within the ERTE, so that it works as an “incentive” to activating workers. This scheme is applied to sectors considered ultra-protected.

The minister explained this Friday that the departures registered so far have accelerated a little compared to May and are within “reasonable”, but they are not as intense as expected, nor in line with the increase in affiliation to the Social Security.

The balance until the middle of the month, specifically on June 16, is about 466,000 people in ERTE, “which means a reduction of more than 76,000 from the beginning of the month by notification date.”

The acceleration in the exits of ERTE has occurred “in all the modalities” of files, “especially in those of limitation, which have been reduced by more than 27,000 people, compared to 38,000 for the whole of May”, highlights the Social Security, as well as in the ERTE of the ultra-protected sectors, “which have been reduced by 24,000 compared to 26,000 in May.”