MILAN — Euro zone government bond yields edged higher on Wednesday, tracking a move in US Treasuries after falling the day before on weaker-than-expected US inflation data.
CPI numbers suggested the Federal Reserve might be more dovish at next week’s policy meeting. The US central bank was getting ready to reduce its bond-buying program while deciding how soon to lift interest rates from near zero.
US borrowing costs rose in early London trade, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 1 basis point to 1.29%, after falling more than 6 bps on Tuesday as data showed consumer prices increased at their slowest pace in six months.
“At present, this slight deceleration in consumer prices, combined with the subdued improvement in the US labor market and participation rate, supports the Fed’s prevailing patient stance,” Raymond James European Strategists said.
Germany’s 10-year government bond yield rose 1 basis point to -0.331%
“The outperformance of US Treasuries, which has taken 30y spreads over Bunds to the lowest level this year, underscores the US impulses are more relevant for the market direction ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting,” Commerzbank analysts said.
Meanwhile, euro zone break-evens cooled off a bit with a key market gauge of euro zone inflation expectations at 1.7406%, after hitting its highest level since mid-2015 at 1.8207% on Monday, in a sign that investor perceptions over the direction of future inflation are shifting.
“With the subdued data tone unlikely to reverse quickly with supply chain constraints lingering while demand impulses are fading, we suggest trading the range just below -0.3% in 10y Bund yields,” they added.
Analysts expect euro zone industrial production data due at 1100 GMT to have gained a considerable amount of ground while trying to assess the timing of the tapering of the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program.
Investors will also focus on ECB speakers, including Spain’s governor Pablo Hernández de Cos, board member Isabel Schnabel and Chief Economist Philip Lane. (Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo, editing by Alex Richardson)