Correspondent in Berlin
Still last February, the Germans perceived Merkel’s CDU as the most competent party on the German political scene by far. «The difference with the other parties was more than double and the electorate had no doubt, but from that moment on we see that the line of appreciation begins to decline and right now only 20% of those surveyed identify the CDU with a competent party, with the ability to solve problems and manage ”, describes Judith Klose, from Civey, the Berlin Start Up that has transferred opinion and market research to online response, which allows the results to be shown immediately.
“The Social Democratic Party (SPD) is now perceived as the most competent, with 27% of clicks, while the CDU gets only 20%.” Klose shows this data as one of the keys to understanding why Merkel’s CDU, which in spring still led the polls with a large margin compared to its opponents, has been falling until it gave up the leadership of the polls to the SPD, which seems doomed to win Sunday’s elections. Angela Merkel’s departure from the German political game board has completely changed the perception of her party and even the voters of opposing parties admit that they will miss her. “In June we posed a question about whether the poll participants are going to miss Merkel and one in two said yes. 53% of CDU voters admitted that they would miss her and 51.9% of the voters of the SPD admitted the same ”, relates Klose, who compares these results with other more current ones. “In March people began to be more critical of Merkel, mainly due to her handling of the pandemic. Not necessarily because they were against the restrictions, many of them precisely on the contrary, because they believed that the government was not doing enough to protect the population “, he explains,” today still 25% of the voters of the SPD affirm that they will cast of less to Merkel ».
Five days to the elections
Klose admits that the polls are moving now, just five days before the elections, depending on the possibilities of a government coalition and points out that the threat of a coalition of the left “Can play the role of a great mobilizer of vote.” He made these observations at a conference organized by the German Embassy in Madrid, in which the ambassador Wolfgang Dold has underlined that in these elections the opinion polls have produced great changes in recent months and great surprises.
Since April and May, as Kolse has confirmed, there has been a significant drop in polls by the conservative CDU until the SPD took over in August. “There is a tendency towards a wind of change, 54.7% admit that Germany needs a reset,” he points out, “but the CDU is only perceived by 15% as a party capable of resetting Germany.” That in terms of parties, because in terms of candidates, the electorate largely wants continuity with Merkel. «At the end of August, Scholz is already perceived with 29% as the continuity candidate». That, added to the fact that the main concerns of the Germans revolve around pensions and employment in the future, they finish completing their profile as a candidate for continuity. «When we ask about the talents of each candidate, if they are surrounded by good experts, their ability to negotiate, their competence, etc., 63% of those surveyed answered that in Armin Laschet, the CDU candidate, do not perceive any of those qualities. The best data he obtains is 25% in the dialogue-oriented category, “he notes, so he doesn’t seem to be making it very difficult for the Social Democrat either.