Sunday, May 28

Exchange coverage deepens on the Stock Exchange: MEP dollar surpassed the blue and CCL touched $227

However, the prices of the CCL evaluated with other assets (such as the GD30 bond, ADRs, or Cedears), returned to operate on the rise and exceeded the $226, for which the gaps were positioned above 115%.

In the case of dollar MEP (via AL30), the price increased by more than $6 (3%) to reach $219,09, an unprecedented value so far in nominal terms. In this way, it surpassed the blue for the first time in more than a month.

“Looking at the convertibility exchange rate that arises from dividing Monetary Liabilities by International Reserves, a price of $223 is not unreasonable at all, so upward pressure could continue,” StoneX Group said.

For its part, from Delphos Investment they maintained that the recent acceleration in stock exchange rates has to do with the fact that “they adjusted their price to the current uncertainty regarding the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in a context of seasonal fall in the money demand”.

“The severe drought and high temperatures deteriorated the prospects for the thick crop, subtracting approximately US$3.7 billion in exports from our ‘baseline’ scenario,” they said.

At the local level, the attention of investors is focused on the evolution of the talks with the IMF, after the tensions in fiscal matters that emerged in recent weeks.

Between this week and the next, more than US$1.1 billion are due of the debt with the organism. Most analysts believe that Argentina will pay, since it does not represent an amount as high as the almost US$2.9 billion due in March, and because not doing so would be a bad sign for the search for an agreement.

“Argentina now wants more time to pay and wants to reach an agreement, which is necessary for both parties,” said the Argentine economy minister., Martin Guzman, in a recent interview.

From Capital Economics they estimate “that the Government will reach a new agreement with the IMF this year, possibly in the first quarter, and will take tentative steps towards more market-friendly policies”, although they still expressed doubts regarding the sustainability of the public debt in the medium term.

The difficulties in closing the deal are worrying given the fragile capacity to retain the dollars that enter the country. In a context of imports at high levels, expectations of devaluation, and commodity prices not as high as in 2021, reserves are under pressure.

Faced with this complicated scenario, the slight increase in rates by the BCRA seems to be insufficient to reduce the demand for the “greenback” in the parallel markets.

To all this is added a context of a strong escape from risk at the international level, in the face of an expected rate hike by the US Fed and a possible conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which strengthens the dollar in the world.

Official dollar and Central Bank

In the wholesale segment, the dollar rose 19 cents in this first round of the week to end at $104.53. Although the price slowed down its upward trend a bit, it is headed for its biggest monthly rise since March last year.

Market sources maintained that the exchange rate operated stabilized throughout the day around the values ​​set for today by the monetary authority, with minimal fluctuation and in a scenario of low amount negotiated.

For the second day in a row, The BCRA was able to end its intervention in the official foreign exchange market with a positive balance in terms of foreign currency accumulation, since it bought US$40 million, in net terms. In this way, the accumulated monthly result once again exceeded US$100 million, a figure similar to that of January last year., when there are still four business days left before the end of the period.

For its part, the retail dollar rose 29 cents to $110.08, -without taxes-, according to the average in the main banks of the financial system. Thus, the solidarity -which contains taxes- rose 48 cents to $181.63.

The blue dollar remained at its nominal record of $219 this Monday, January 24, 202, according to a survey by Ámbito in the Black Foreign Exchange Market.

The parallel dollar, which came to give up $1 in the first part of the day, closed unchanged compared to Friday’s values, with which the gap with the official exchange rate stood at 109.5%, close to a maximum since 2020.

The informal comes from accumulating its highest weekly rise in seven months: $9.50. Thus, the price shows an increase of $13 from its monthly minimum ($206), noted on Monday, January 3.