Friday, March 24

Financial dollars fell and BCRA accelerates rate of devaluation: gap hits 3-week lows

Next week’s inflation data, which would be above 3.5%, will be key for the monetary authority to make a decision about its monetary policy.

The truth is that, despite the fact that some doubts remain about the soon final advance of the agreement with the Fund given the differences within the ruling coalition and its approval by Congress, financial dollars have been showing greater calm in their daily variations, after the announcement of a beginning of understanding with the international organization, at the end of January.

The dollar counted with liquid “or” CCL “ (quotation valued with the GD30 bond) down $1.51 (-0.7%) to $218.73, and the gap with the official exchange rate was reduced to 107%, minimum since last January 18. Last week the CCL had recorded a drop of $5.87 (-2.6%).

For its part, the MEP dollar or Stock Exchange (with GD30) it depreciated $2.01 (-1%) to $210.22, with which the spread with the wholesale price pierced 100%, to 98.5%.

The recent resignation of Máximo Kirchner to the presidency of the ruling bloc in the Chamber of Deputies in rejection of the recent agreement generated some mistrust among investors, which was reflected in a greater aversion to local risk.

“This week there are several points to monitor. Among them, the details of the agreement and its subsequent treatment in Congress and the signs that the ruling coalition offers about its internal disputes,” they said from Portfolio Personal Investments.

For Xavier Timerman, partner of Adcap Grupo Financiero, the principle of agreement with the IMF is “positive and even creative from the government’s point of view, because it is something that is going to allow us to take a step forward, and I think the investors would have seen it well. But after the agreement, a noise is generated, a local dynamic, which It disturbs everything because we have a way of doing politics that doesn’t happen in other countries and that worries us because you never know how it ends”.

“That noise is constantly generated, when in the civilized world, important issues are resolved in a bipartisan manner,” Timerman completed, in statements to FM Metro.

Pending the final agreement with the IMF, the level of BCRA reserves continues to cause concern, which are at a multi-year low, below US$38 billion gross, and around US$1.5 billion net. .

“The harsh reality is that the BCRA has run out of its own liquid reserves, which are already negative,” said Roberto Drimer, of VatNet Research, and pointed out that “since the payment of imports and essential services is not guaranteed, We consider it convenient to reduce the exchange rate gap of the order of 100% in a consistent and scheduled manner”.

official dollar

In the wholesale segment, the dollar, which directly regulates the BCRA, rose 27 cents to $105.68, the biggest start-of-the-week gain since last January 3.

The volume traded in the foreign exchange market grew 16% to US$213 million.

Faced with a greater supply -and with soybean prices at 8-month highs, already above US$580-, the Central Bank ended with a positive balance of almost US$50 million this Monday in his interventions in the exchange market. This is the largest daily currency purchase in a month and the third largest in the year. In this way, the accumulated balance for February became positive, at about US$2 million. The monetary authority comes from three consecutive weeks with an unfavorable balance in its interventions.

“The magnitude of this Monday’s adjustment suggests a slight acceleration in the sliding of dollar prices in the wholesale segment. The improvement in income from abroad collaborated with the official purpose of recovering reserves, generating the first significant balance in favor of February. The agro-export complex registered last week the highest amount of sales since the beginning of the year, a fact that encourages positive expectations for the official objectives of starting a more intense process of recovery of reserves”, commented analyst Gustavo Quintana.

For his part, the Retail dollar increased nine cents this Monday, February 7, 2022, to $111.46 -without taxes-, according to the average in the main banks of the financial system. In turn, the retail value of the currency at Banco Nación it rose 25 cents a $111.

Thus, the savings dollar or solidarity dollar -retail plus tax- rose 15 cents a $183.91 on average, after posting its biggest rise of the year on Friday (74 cents).

future dollar

In the futures market ROFEX, meanwhile, the dollar traded with most losses, close to 0.2%, starting in April.

The currency for the end of the month ended with a rate of 33.39% and for the end of March, with a rate of 44.57%. US$276 million were traded, reported ABC Mercado de Cambios.

The blue dollar closed stable this monday at $214, according to a survey of Ambit in the Black Market of Currencies.

The parallel dollar came from accumulating a loss of $2.50 in the two previous days, after rising $4 between last Monday and Wednesday. Thus, the gap with the wholesale exchange rate was located at 102,5%.

Let us remember that the informal dollar suffered a sharp drop of $10 on Friday, January 28, as a reaction to the announcement of the principle of agreement between Argentina and the Fund.

The parallel dollar, anyway, it rose last week by $1.50.