Wednesday, February 21

First market forecast in 2022: foresees inflation of 55% but reduced devaluation expectation

At the same time, the market expects the official wholesale exchange rate to reach $160 in December, which would imply an annual devaluation rate of 57%, lower than the 60.7% expected in December.

The REM took place between January 26 and 31. In between, the government announced an understanding with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a fact that undoubtedly modified expectations.

The main novelty of the announcements made by the President and the Minister of the Economy was the agreed fiscal deficit reduction path for the coming years, which was the point where there was the most tension. However, it remains to be seen what path the Executive Power intends to take to achieve the objective.

Regarding the exchange rate, the president of the BCRA, Miguel Pesce, denied that there will be a devaluation jump. Martín Guzmán has been supporting this position and stressed that there is a consensus with the IMF that the price of the dollar must be compatible with the trade surplus and the accumulation of reserves, which is expected to reach US$5 billion for this year.

Regarding inflation, according to Guzmán there were also coincidences in the need to combat it from various approaches; both with the reduction of the monetary issue, and with policies that seek to generate foreign exchange and price agreements to coordinate expectations.