Monday, January 24

For investors: CER bonds beat inflation, the dollar and rates

About, Quinquela Funds points out that “the Cash Cash with Settlement (CCL) dollar beat the MEP by 2.7 points, accumulating an increase in the year of 48.4%”. In that same period, the CER Index of the Central Bank experienced a growth of 50.8% above financial dollars. The blue dollar, for example, in one year rose only 25%, going from $ 164 to $ 206.

On the other hand, it stands out that “the interest rate, taking the Badlar as a reference, clearly outperformed the exchange rate, but it was negative in real terms and also lost against financial dollars.” According to Quinquela, the one who put his funds in a fixed-term deposit a year ago, today has almost 40% more pesos, but lost 3.4% against the MEP dollar. For investors who chose to acquire assets that adjust for the Badlar Rate, the accumulated yield in the year is 45.1%, beating a fixed term by 5.5 points and achieving a positive return in MEP dollars of 0.4% . On the other hand, if you opted for fixed rate instruments, the yield for the year was 40.1%, losing 3.1% when adjusted by MEP.

The best-performing investments turned out to be the longest CER assets, which gained 71% on average. “These instruments have been adjusted for historical inflation and for the expectation of sustained forward inflation and its longer duration. The instruments of the medium and short tranche also generated high and positive returns in terms of MEP dollar ”, the private report indicates.

Another option highly sought after by banks this year were dollar linked bonds. With the exchange rate being used as the main nominal anchor, assets that adjust for the official dollar were relegated especially in the first part of the year. They only recovered attractiveness when the electoral process approached and the demand for coverage increased, offsetting through price the low rate of depreciation of the official dollar.

On the other hand, the instruments that emerged after the debt swap were favored by the increase in the gap between financial and official dollars, but a sharp fall in parities generated losses in dollars. “In pesos they barely achieved yields of the order of 29.2% for the New York Law bonds and 21.6% for the instruments issued under Argentine legislation. If the result is measured in dollars (MEP), both lost ground, resigning 10.6% the New York Law bonds and 15.8% the local ones ”, says the report.

On the other hand, the shares managed to protect the invested values. They were the second best investment after CER-adjusted long bonds.

According to a report by Invertir On Line, in the local market, Ternium had a yield of 179% while Embraer’s Cedear posted gains of 247%. The firm highlighted that for a riskier investor profile this year it offered a fund made up of 2% Cash, 43% Fixed Income and 55% Variable Income. In the accumulated from April to date, the aggressive portfolio yielded 49.9%, beating the dollar and inflation in the period (30.2% and 27.7% respectively). The portfolio is made up of 10% of Cedear from Exxon, Berkshire Hathaway, Alphabet, Walmart, and Celulose Negotiable Obligations. It includes 20% of IRSA’s ON, 13% of Discount Bonds in Pesos and 5% of Premier Commodities, Pampa Energía shares and Premier Renta Variable.

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