According to the specialist, for the dollar wholesaler, regulated by the Central Bank, continues to rise above inflation, the demand for pesos should increase, something that he does not see on the horizon. That is why it warns that until inflationary expectations are anchored, the real exchange rate will continue to lag.
It should be remembered that the official dollar again accumulated a rise of just 1% in October, well below a monthly inflation that only in one month of the last 13 was able to drop 3%.
Based on this delay, and the limited level of reserves, some market operators expect that after the legislative elections the exchange rate will rise to a greater extent. This was denied by the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, who argues that the exchange rate is not low in historical terms, in the context of record exports and a Central Bank that registered its best October in a decade in terms of foreign exchange accumulation. , aided by restrictions on demand.
$ 50,000 portfolio
“If our scenario for the official exchange rate is verified, for positions in pesos it would be necessary to lower the percentage of the portfolio of Dollar Linked and increase exposure to assets linked to CER (inflation) maturing in the second quarter of 2022, to be covered if there is an inflationary scenario in the summer ”, explained Podesta.
In this sense, the director of Allaria suggested to those conservative investors a portfolio made up 65% of CER instruments, such as the Allaria Fixed Income Common Investment Fund (FCI), the X23Y2, the X30J2 or the X29L2, by 25 % by Dollar Linked bonds (FCI Allaria Renta Mixta 2, TV22) and 10% by liquidity (FCI Allaria Ahorro Plus, S31E2).
For its part, Nicolas Lo Valvo, senior analyst in the Investment Ideas area at Balance, recommended two alternatives for investors with a capital of $ 50,000, with an entry requirement of just $ 1,000.
In the first place, “for those who have planned expenses in the short term,” recommended the Balance Savings Fund, similar to investing in a fixed term. “It yields the equivalent of a Badlar rate + 3% with the advantage of being able to redeem, either totally or partially, the balance without being subject to a specific maturity. The accumulated yield to date is 35% ”, he deepened.
Secondly, “for those who do not need to have their weights immediately available,” suggested the Fixed Income Balance Fund Dollar Linked, to obtain coverage against possible jumps in the exchange rate.
In parallel, a report from InvertirOnline (IOL) stated that the most convenient option, for a conservative profile, is to position oneself at 30% in the Boncer 2022 (TX22), an inflation-indexed security that expires in March next year and currently offers a real yield of 2.3%. In parallel, according to the brokerage company, another 30% should be deposited in the AdCap Income Dollar, a FCI made up of fixed income instruments in dollars, mainly from Brazilian companies.
Regarding stocks, IOL recommended distributing 25% of the portfolio among Cedears by Nike, Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan. Regarding the latter firm, they maintained that the objective of the bet is “to capture the acceleration experienced by the rise in the interest rate of 10-year bonds, in addition to weighing the good results presented by the financial sector.”
Finally, the report leaves 15% of this type of portfolio for cash, both in pesos and in dollars.
$ 100,000 portfolio
For a savings capacity of $ 100,000, Lo Valvo recommended adding to the previously mentioned FCIs, investing in Cedears within the oil and gas sector “To take advantage of the rise that these commodities are experiencing and taking into account the projections of said prices.” The companies that are within this pack are Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell and BP (British Petroleum).
Meanwhile, in the portfolio recommended by IOL for this investor profile with a little more financial remainder, the weights of the TX22 and FCI AdCap are also important but fall to 20% and 15%, respectively, compared to the conservative portfolio. Likewise, it incorporates a 15% incidence in concept of the AA22, a bond in pesos adjustable to the Badlar Rate that today yields 48.3%, and 10% in the Negotiable Obligation of Capex due in 2022.
In the variable income part, IOL suggests distributing 30% among the assets of Alphabet (Google), Berkshire, JP Morgan and the FCI Premier Renta Variable, which is mainly committed to local firms in the energy and financial sector.
Additionally, InvertirOnline’s suggestion in this case sets aside 10% to allocate to liquid holdings.
Portfolio of more than $ 200,000
For a more aggressive profile, Podesta suggests reducing the CER asset share to 50% of the portfolio. In parallel, see with good eyes allocates 30% to Cedears (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Facebook, Nvidia) and 20% to sovereign bonds in dollars (GD35 and GD38).
Lo Valvo recommends incorporating Negotiable Obligations in dollars, such as that of YPF to 2025 with an IRR of 13.10%.
For this type of investor, IOL showed a preference for the Negotiable Obligation of Irsa to 2023 (20% of the portfolio) since it offers an Internal Rate of Return higher than 9% and was the most operated in the domestic capital market during the first semester, which gives it liquidity.
Likewise, its simulation of portfolio composition allocates 13% to Fuck 2026, with a return of 6.5%, and 10% to the Negotiable Obligation of Cellulose with a term to 2025, notable for having an IRR close to 10% and because it amortizes the capital in 20 installments.
Regarding the distribution of equities, IOL recommends distributing 42% between Cedears of Microsoft, Berkshire, Alphabet, JP Morgan y Exxon. At the same time, it is attractive to leave 5% for the Ternium steelmaker, another 5% for the Premier Equity fund, and 5% for cash.