The institution led by Miguel Ángel Pesce highlighted that between January and October the Central registered net purchases of foreign currency for US $ 6.421 million, a record for this period since 2012. It is worth clarifying that this performance was favored by the high prices of commodities and the many restrictions on demand.
Meanwhile, international reserves increased US $ 3.43 billion in those 10 months. The lower income with respect to purchases in the exchange market had to do with the cancellation of debt with international organizations and the resources that were used to intervene in financial dollars and reduce the gap.
In this context, the BCRA stated that “despite the lower dynamism of the nominal exchange rate in recent months, the multilateral real exchange rate remains at competitive levels and around the average of the last 24 years“.
On the other hand, the Central Bank highlighted the growth of economic activity from the vaccination campaign, the flexibility of both activities and capacity, and the stimulus policies of both the monetary authority and the National Government.
Regarding inflation, the report stated that the inflationary acceleration observed in September and October had to do with the fact that, in addition to the inertia carried on for months, “anticipated transitory factors such as the incidence of international prices, lately more linked to energy prices and the cost of global manufacturing, the observed recomposition of marketing margins in certain sectors and the realignment of relative prices of private services due to the reopening of activities within the framework of the improvement in the epidemiological situation and, to a lesser extent, to the updates of the salary parities “.
“This occurred in a context where the electoral process gave greater volatility to exchange expectations,” they said from the bank.
Faced with this scenario, the BCRA projected for 2022 a sustained improvement in activity and a moderation of inflation, which will lead to “a greater demand for monetary balances real, which would be around the average value recorded during the previous decade (2010-2019) “.
“In this new stage, It is expected that the lower financing needs of the National Treasury and the greater prominence of the debt market in pesos will contribute to reducing the monetary sterilization effort“added the entity in its work published this Thursday.
According to the monetary authority, the economic recovery at the international level may be slowed by increases in energy prices, which could accelerate the reduction of monetary stimuli, or by an eventual recrudescence of new strains of Covid-19.