Friday, January 21

For the first time in 3 months, the MEP dollar ended closer to solidarity than to CCL

Conversely, the MEP fell 1.9% to $ 198.10, which left a gap of 95.3%, the lowest since October 25. For the first time in three months, this exchange rate became closer to the solidarity dollar than to the CCL.

The market remains attentive to the evolution of the official exchange rate after the president of the BCRA, Miguel Pesce, said last week that the entity plans to accelerate the “crawling peg” when the inflationary process allows it. At the beginning of this week there was a greater devaluation compared to previous weeks, although the variation is still limited and it remains to be seen if the trend will continue in the near future.

The consulting firms and financial entities that participated in the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) carried out by the monetary authority project an average monthly increase of 4% for the exchange rate, between December and May.

The private sector expects the currency to “correct” next year what it did not “correct” this year. In that sense, he estimates that the rise in 2022 will be 55.3% (to settle at $ 161), when in October they expected it to rise 51.3%. For the same period, projected inflation is 52.1%.

On the other hand, investors monitor progress in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). A team made up of members of the Ministry of the Economy and the Central Bank have been in Washington since the weekend to seek to bring positions closer to the multilateral credit organization. Expectations are favorable for an agreement, which is reflected in the improvement in the price of Argentine bonds.

Meanwhile, the presentation of the government’s multi-year economic plan to Congress is awaited, which a priori was going to take place this week.

The The blue dollar deepened its downtrend on Tuesday and hit five-week lows, already below $ 200., according to a survey of Ambit in the Black Market of Foreign Currency.

Conditioned by a higher demand for pesos, something common at this time of year, but also by the expectation of an agreement between Argentina and the IMF for the debt, the parallel dollar gave up $ 1 to $ 198.

Therefore, the gap with the wholesale exchange rate narrowed further, to 95.2%, the new low since October.

The official dollar accelerated

The official wholesale dollar increased 14 cents to finish the wheel at $ 101.42. Therefore, between Monday and Tuesday the price rose 26 cents (0.3%), the highest rise for the same period since the first days of April.

“Tomorrow’s holiday could have justified the biggest adjustment today, without this meaning a change in the strategy of updating the dollar, something that will be seen in the next few days,” clarified Gustavo Quintana, from PR Corredores de Cambio.

The excess demand in the official exchange market caused the BCRA to part with $ 45 million. In this way, the institution led by Miguel Pesce could not sustain the positive balance that it had achieved the day before.

December red is now at $ 240 million, which is in addition to the $ 890 million that left in November. Even so, in the accumulated of 2021 the Central shows a net purchase of US $ 5.370 million.

Gross International Reserves fell this day by about $ 50 million up to US $ 41,249 million. In a context of growing devaluation expectations and unfounded rumors about a possible corralito for deposits in North American currency, the coffers of the monetary authority have fallen more than US $ 1.8 billion since the end of October.

“The private deposits in dollars they ended last week at $ 15.206 million. During the year, US $ 750 million fell, of which US $ 554 million left this last week as a result of the false rumors about the corralito, “said financial analyst Christian Buteler.

Finally, the saving dollar or solidarity dollar – the retailer that includes a 30% of the COUNTRY tax, and a 35% on account of the Income Tax – increased 38 cents to $ 176.35.