Correspondent in Berlin
The turn that the German polls are taking this summer exceeds a new milestone unthinkable until just a few weeks ago. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), democratically turned off during the last Grand Coalition legislature, Go back to overtake Los Verdes and snatch second place from them and only two percentage points away from catching up with the CDU conservatives. The advantage between Merkel’s party and the Social Democrats was not that narrow since March 2017.
The bulk of the campaign is yet to be developed and Merkel, that in principle had ignored the electoral struggle, will begin to make a presence this next Friday, at a rally to be held at the Tempodrom in Berlin. But despite the fact that the electoral result is not yet written, it is evident that the trend of vote is going around with determination and that the SPD reaffirms its upward propensity, to which is added the growing weakness of the rest of the major parties.
According to the RTL / ntv barometer, the Greens and the FDP Liberals each lose one percentage point compared to the previous week. The CDU / CSU has not recovered from the dismal 23% in which it has fallen in recent weeks, a full-blown defeat if we take into account that in the 2017 elections it obtained 32.9%.
The SPD overtakes Los Verdes
Meanwhile, the SPD, with its 21%, is ahead of Los Verdes, anchored at 19%. The anti-European and anti-foreign party Alternative for Germany (AfD) would obtain 10%, down from 12.6% in the last elections, although this result may vary due to the effect that the wave of refugees coming from Afghanistan and that will be playing in Europe in the coming weeks. This event can give this formation an impulse that nobody counted on. And the number of non-voters or undecided remains at 26%, a slightly higher proportion than in the 2017 elections, when it was 23.8%.
The advantage of the Social Democrats would be much greater, in any case, if instead of voting for a party the Germans voted directly for a candidate. The Vice Chancellor, Minister of Finance and candidate of the SPD, Olaf Scholz, gains three percentage points compared to the previous week and is, with 29%, 17 percentage points ahead of the CDU candidate, Armin Laschet, unchanged at 12%. The green Annalena Baerbock it continues to lose, one percentage point this week, and 14 percentage points worse than Scholz, at 15%. Although undoubtedly the most optimistic data for the Social Democrats is that only 15% of those surveyed believe that the Conservatives will be able to “reverse” their bad figures in the polls, in the five that remain before the elections.
47% think that their bad data in the polls will not change before the elections. 33% think that the values ”will continue to get worse.” The fact that the CDU delayed the election of the candidate is having a ballast effect, since a large part of its voters continue to see the president of Bavaria as the candidate with more possibilities, Markus Söder, ruled out by that internal process but which has remained fixed in the electorate’s retina as a more charismatic option. If Söder were the CDU candidate for chancellor, instead of Armin Laschet and according to the same survey, the party will recover a quarter of the votes that are currently added to other acronyms.
Given this situation in the polls, the possibilities to form a government coalition are expanded. The CDU / CSU will provide 192 of the 748 seats in the new Bundestag. The SPD would correspond 172, the Greens 155, the FDP 98, Die Linke (The Left) 49 and the AfD would occupy 82 seats. The Greens would win 88, the SPD 19 and the FDP 18 seats compared to the 2017 federal elections. The Union would lose 54, the Left 20 and the AfD 12 seats. And since 374 deputies are needed to form a new government, both the CDU and the SPD could theoretically claim the Berlin Chancellery, while for the Greens, who in spring came to cherish that dream, it has already become a utopia.
Most clearer, with 462 seatsIt would be the so-called “German coalition” formed by the CDU, the SPD and the FDP. The ‘Jamaica coalition’, made up of the CDU, the Greens and the FDP, would have a combined 445 seats. And the “traffic light coalition”, made up of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP would have a total of 425 seats. A narrow majority of a total of 376 terms, and thus far less likely to become a reality, would currently have a red-red-green “left alliance”.