The world economy will pass the threshold of $ 100 trillion (88 trillion euros) for the first time in 2022, which represents an advance of two years with respect to the previous forecasts of the Center for Economic and Business Research (CEBR), which has pushed back to 2030 from 2028 when China will unseat the United States as the world’s largest economy.
In its analysis, the British consultancy highlights that the scale of the economic impact of the pandemic in 2020 appears to have been slightly less severe than assumed previously, with the loss of 3.2% of world GDP, compared to the initial estimate of 4.4%, while the recovery “is certainly much stronger”, with growth of 5.5% in 2021 and 4.2% next year.
In this way, Higher than previously expected growth in the United States will allow the North American economy to stay ahead of the ‘World Economic League ‘at least until 2030, two years more than the estimate in last year’s edition, when it will be dethroned by China, although this date represents an advance of three years with respect to the projections published before the pandemic.
Looking to the end of the CEBR projections horizon, In addition to China and the US, the largest economies in 2036 will be India, which will advance to third place from sixth place planned for 2022, ahead of Germany, which will maintain its fourth position, and of Japan, which will gradually fall from third place current to fifth in 2036.
On your side, United Kingdom, which would manage to maintain the fifth position in the world in 2022, Despite Brexit, it would lose one position in 2026 and remain in sixth position until at least 2036, ahead of France, which will rank seventh from 2022 until the end of the forecast.
In the case of Spain, the consulting firm anticipates that the country will manage to maintain the 14th position in the world during this decade, although it will fall to 15th place in 2031, which will not prevent Spain from continuing to be the largest Spanish-speaking economy in the world throughout the forecast horizon, ahead of Mexico.