Friday, November 26

Government will send an economic plan to Congress, pre-agreed with the IMF

As he was able to confirm Ambit, And as Alberto Fernández anticipated, this initiative would already have the endorsement of all the members of the Frente de Todos, including Kirchnerism itself. In this way, the Government gives a strong signal about the possibility of redirecting the conversations with the IMF that deposit it in an agreement so as not to fall into default. At the same time, it gives prominence to the discussion for the 2022 budget, which must necessarily reconcile the economic goals with those presented to the IMF.


To support this discussion, the Government will not only use the National Congress. It will also enable, as Ámbito anticipated and pointed out tonight by the president himself, the Economic and Social Council led by secretary Gustavo Béliz.

Argentines suffer the most important social fracture in recent decades. Inflation, dollar, employment, salary, purchasing power, productivity, distributional bid are just some of the pending issues that have not yet found an answer. To sign off this terrible reality are the data on poverty and indigence. The economic challenges that are registered for President Alberto Fernández seem to be clear.

The Government wants to resume an agenda with issues of economy and society, two pending much more urgent than a few years ago due to the impact of the pandemic. As a result of the election through, he will have to question all the figures of his coalition, weigh the support he has. But you will also have to look for allies in other spaces. For this, Béliz has a vital function: nothing more and nothing less than to become the host of the main discussions that will seek consensus. You will be able to use the Council.

Next Wednesday, On the day of militancy, there will be, in principle, mobilization and various support for the presidential figure and the cast, and in his figure, they say, a new vote of confidence in the coalition that is the Frente de Todos. That date triggers the commemoration of the return of Juan Domingo Perón to the country after almost 20 years in exile. There will be the leadership of the brand new CGT, the Peronist unions, the social movements. The Chief of Cabinet Juan Manzur will surely manage to thread the support of the governors (except those of the Soy Peronism). It is also sought, although there are still no certainties in the Casa Rosada, that all of La Cámpora can come together in the act.

There are some signs that are already on the horizon. It was Sergio Massa who evidenced a turning point in the relationship of the members of the Frente de Todos when a few days ago he summoned all the political, economic and social sectors for the 15N, the day after the elections. From today, the call would include all opposition parties, businessmen, unions and organizations.

The Government is also excited about the relative weight that business leaders can bring to it, something that the IMF also asks of it. Some that are already on the list, such as Daniel Herrero from Toyota, Antonio Aracre from Syngenta, Sergio Kaufman from Accenture and Laura Barnator from Unilever. But also the former head of the Argentine Industrial Union, Miguel Acevedo; the Secretary General of the Metallurgical Workers Union, Antonio Caló; the President of the Argentine Agrarian Federation, Carlos Achetoni; the member of the brand new leadership of the CGT, Carlos Acuña; the Rector of the National University of Buenos Aires, Alberto Barbieri; the Secretary of the Union of Workers of the Popular Economy, Esteban “Gringo” Castro; the President of the Argentine Chamber of Construction, Iván Szczech; and the Secretary General of the Central de Trabajadores de Argentina, Hugo Yasky. And there is more.

All in all, the great challenge will be to “put” on that agenda the issues that urge Argentines: the creation of jobs, the brake on the erosion of purchasing power, the launch of a comprehensive export plan that can generate foreign exchange, resume a fluid dialogue with the entire agricultural sector. And there are two more: to agree on a unique position to resume negotiations with the IMF and to direct the exchange policy that does not stop giving urgency to the Government. Strictly speaking, the challenge will be to put yourself in the shoes of the average Argentine, who went through four years of wrong economic policies in the madness of Change in power and two years of pandemic that deepened these imbalances, amid the most relevant social fracture of the last decades.

It is true that the macro indicators are at their best: activity, industrial production, the export records of the agricultural sector, all improve the numbers of 2019. But it is no less true that these numbers still cannot distort what they left the macrista pandemic and the other pandemic, that of Covid-19.

You have to look at the microeconomics. A priori, the president and his minister, Martín Guzmán, already told businessmen last week that there will be no outright devaluation, although it is likely that there are small devaluation jumps at a higher rate than inflation runs, that is, crawling peg for that the exchange rate imbalance does not pile up restrictions that are later complex to dismantle. They have indicated that there will be fiscal discipline, but that in no way can it be implemented overnight and less after a pandemic with a cost for the lower income sectors due to lower public spending. In summary, the data that Guzmán negotiates with the IMF are those proposed by the budget that he expects in Congress and that will also form part of the multi-year plan.

For this, the president will extend the ordinary sessions until December 10, since he wants to insist on the approval of laws before that day half of the Deputies and a third of the Senate are renewed. It should be remembered that in the budget Guzmán set inflation at 29%, but the increase in the cost of living could leave this in evidence. But if it is about evidence, none like that for 2022, the return, up to now committed, of almost US $ 18,000 million with the IMF does not appear in the budget, nor does the more than US $ 2,000 million that were given to it. they owe the Paris Club. Said in Creole, in Economics they believe that in one way or another that money will begin to be repaid from 2024 onwards.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *