Monday, February 6

How will tourism recover? Amadeus and Meliá give the first clues

Amadeus Y Meliá They have lived a year 2021 in which they have once again been at the mercy of a pandemic that has continued to affect their results, but in which they have achieved a timid recovery that has allowed them to end the year with a slight rebound in the stock market.

The 58.06 euros with which he opened the year Amadeus have become 59.64 euros at the close of the last session of the Spanish stock market calendar, that of December 30, which set the year-on-year increase of the company that provides technological solutions for the technology industry at 2.72 percent. the trips.

Melià HotelsMeanwhile, it started 2021 trading at 5.36 euros, and has finished it at 6 euros, climbing up to 11.98 percent in a year of many difficulties for the tourism sector.

A very important factor, in addition, is that the two companies have increased their valuation during the last month very marked by the uncertainty that arose after the appearance of the omicron variant, thus anticipating the expected improvement of both companies in 2022, which is forecast as the definitive year of tourist recovery.

Continued investment and market share power Amadeus

In the case of Amadeus, consensus analysts forecast a 4.5 percent improvement for the company’s stocks in the next 12 months, assigning them an average price target of 62.31 euros.

All the price updates and recommendations made since December, in addition, bet either to buy or to retain the company’s shares, banishing the latest bearish positions to reports from last November.

From JP Morgan, which has already praised Amadeus’ agreement with Marriott, explains that its commitment to overweight shares that it expects to reach 72 euros is based on the belief that “Amadeus It is a sure value in the recovery of travel, as it is a leading company in the global distribution market for systems and technological solutions for airlines and the hospitality industry. “

“The company’s € 550 million cost savings plan is in place, and the available liquidity of € 2.7 billion should be more than sufficient as we now expect Amadeus to have positive cash flow for the fiscal year. 21 “, explains JP Morgan in your report.

The financial institution also highlights the continued investment of Amadeus in the technological area to maintain long-term leadership and competitive positioning of the company, “with a share of more than 40 percent in both global distribution systems and passenger service systems for airlines.”

Meliá increases its income despite the coronavirus

The potential return of Meliá Hotels in 2022 it is higher than that of Amadeus, achieving an average improvement of 14.3 percent among the consensus of analysts monitoring the Spanish company.

Under this weighting, the 12-month target price of the shares stands at 6.86 euros, which would represent an increase of 86 cents compared to the 6 euros of listing at which the company closed the 2021 stock market calendar.

The positive note regarding Meliá Hotels bring it this time Deutsche Bank, which points out that the group has been able to nearly double its hotel revenues each quarter since early 2021, adding up to € 67 million in the first quarter, € 217 million in the second, and € 308 million. In the third.

The German bank expects the fourth quarter to be more or less in line with the third, and highlights that 55 percent of the group’s bookings are made through “”.

That is, they are performed live without paying commissions to third parties, an element that Deutsche anticipates that it will have a positive impact on the EBITDA margin in the medium term, which could reach 30%, compared to 26.5% in fiscal year 19.

Deutsche Bank also wields that Meliá It will burn a few million cash in a fourth quarter that is traditionally the lowest-contributing quarter of the year, but should return to positive free cash flow in the first quarter of 2022.

A 2022 that stays at the gates of the 2019 levels

By expanding the zoom of optimism about these two companies to all Spanish tourism, optimistic forecasts about the future of the industry come from Caixabank Research, what in an industry report predicts that spending by international tourists will double “thanks to the normalization of tourism in the EU and the recovery of the markets of the United Kingdom and of the Americas, principally USA and Canada.

With regard to domestic tourism, the analysis division of Caixabank expects captive demand to continue to maintain spending by Spanish tourists at levels somewhat higher than in 2019.

With this, the financial institution calculates that the tourism GDP of 2022 will be at a level of 88 percent compared to 2019, registering an annual growth of 63 percent.