Friday, February 3

IAG, Meliá, the beneficiaries of the recovery of tourism

Exceltur has published its forecasts for the sector for this year, in which it estimates that in 2022 it will be possible to recover around 87 percent of the levels prior to the Covid-19 crisis.

Specifically, the tourism sector lobby is confident that the virus pothole will have been overcome as of April, so that tourism activity in Spain could reach 135,465 million euros in 2022 as a whole.

Compared to the 88,548 million euros registered in 2021, it would mean increasing the figures by 53 percent.

Likewise, it implies recovering that 87 percent of the levels prior to Covid-19 (154,487 million euros were entered in 2019).

Exceltur has good prospects for tourism

“Good news for the sector”, confirms Juan Moreno, Bankinter analyst.

Moreno gives credibility to these Exceltur forecasts because, in fact, they are in line with Bankinter’s own estimates, which point to a recovery of 85 percent compared to 2019, to return to record highs as soon as next year. , in 2023.

In Moreno’s opinion, “this recovery will come mainly from foreign tourism, which has been more penalized by mobility restrictions.”

Tourism, among Bankinter’s preferred sectors

In this context, it is expected that the tourism sector will continue to recover on the stock market and that is why Bankinter places it among its preferences for this 2022.

Although within the sector, there are values ​​that like more and less within the entity.

We reiterate our recommendation to buy Meliá and IAG, which have had a very good start to the year with increases of 9 and 16 percent respectively in the first stages of the year. Outside of Spain, our preferences are Ryanair, Marriott, Booking, Expedia and Airbnb,” says Moreno, in a report released this Friday.

IAG has started the year well on the stock market

IAG, in fact, was already revalued in the sessions on Thursday and Friday, after knowing the Exceltur figures.

Although the consensus of analysts is not entirely unanimous in terms of optimism regarding IAG.

More than half of the experts (58.6 percent, equivalent to 17 analysts) recommend buying the stock; but 34.5 percent of them (about 10) prefer to keep and 6.9 percent (two) advise selling.

As for the target price, it stands at 2.40 euros compared to the levels of 1.98 euros that it marked this Friday (it is having a hard time overcoming the resistance of two euros), which gives it a potential of 22.4 percent. hundred.

One of the investment houses that is not entirely clear about IAG’s near future is Bank of America.

They expect that “the recovery will be delayed, that the short-term outlook will be complicated and that concern about the capital increase will continue,” according to a report published by the entity.

Thus, the bank’s experts have lowered the recommendation to neutral from “buy”.

In the medium term, by contrast, Bank of America experts continue to see IAG as a strong company with a superior cost structure and the potential for transatlantic earnings.

Meliá has less potential than IAG

As for Meliá, the consensus of analysts is also fairly evenly distributed, since 40.9 percent of the experts recommend buying (9 people); another 40.9 percent maintain (another 9 nine people); and 18.2 percent sell (4 experts).

Regarding the target price, it stands at 6.86 euros, which implies a lower potential of 6.9 percent from current levels of 6.44 euros.