Friday, December 3

Inflation, dollar and GDP: what the market gurus expect by the end of the year


It also corrected its estimates for the month of October from 2.8% to 3.2%. Additionally, it expects an average increase of 3% for November and 3.3% for December.

PBI

Regarding economic activity, REM participants improved their expectations for 2021 by 0.7 points; now they expect a GDP 8.3% higher than in 2020.

The expectation of economic growth for the third quarter of the year was modified upwards with an estimated rise of 2.6% compared to the second quarter, 0.9 points higher in relation to the previous survey. The estimate for the fourth quarter increased 0.1 points to 0.6%.

Dollar

In exchange, the “gurus” did not change their projections, taking into account the firmness with which the BCRA maintains its exchange rate adjustment policy in coordination with the Government’s intention to calm pressure on prices. Therefore, if the forecasts are fulfilled, the official wholesale dollar would end at $ 105.10, which would imply an annual devaluation rate of just 27.1%.

By 2022, the market expects the pressures on the main macroeconomic variables to continue: it estimates inflation of 48.9% and an adjustment of 51.3% in the exchange rate.

Badlar rate

For November 2021, those who participate in REM predicted a BADLAR rate for private banks of 34.17%, similar to that registered in October (34.14%). There is evidence of a slightly upward trend in the monthly forecasts until the end of the year, with the rate rising to 34.50%.

Meanwhile, those who best forecasted the interest rate for the short term expect, on average, that it will be at 34.33% by the end of 2021.



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