Monday, January 17

Inflation pierced 3% in November due to the price freeze, but a rebound in December is not ruled out

“Headline inflation starts from 3% in the month of November with a slowdown in the food and beverages category to 2.8%. However, Clothing and Footwear and housing are above the general indicator, both cases exceeding 4% monthly inflation. In the month of December there is a seasonal rise in prices, which could accelerate even above October inflation from 3.5% to 3.8% “explained Damián Di Pace Director of the Focus Market Consultant.

“In the month after the implementation of the price freeze, we observed a split inflation in the retail market with a significant variety of mass consumer products frozen on the shelves in large shopping areas on the one hand and with a price variation in the rest channels such as national self-service, Chinese and small pantries, “said Damián Di Pace, Director of the Consultancy Focus Market.

For the consulting firm Orlando ferreres, the number is similar: 2.9% per month. “According to the CPI-OJF (GBA), inflation in November was 2.9% per month and registered a year-on-year growth of 46.7%. On the other hand, core inflation advanced at a monthly rate of 3.3 %, marking an annual increase of 48.5%. Accumulated headline inflation was 41.6% “.

In tune, C&T Consultor registers a rise of 2.6% per month in November, less than the 3.7% in October and 3.2% in November 2020. In this case, the consulting firm estimates that the main increases were due to education – due to the authorized increases in schools – recreation – due to the long weekend movement – and clothing – due to greater demand in summer-.

As for the food item, “like other mass consumer products, They moderated strongly due to the drop in prices that occurred at the end of October due to the price freeze, which generated a large statistical drag in November. But food, especially, resumed its rise during November, especially in the second and fourth weeks; this leaves a high statistical drag for December, which anticipates that in December inflation, not only in this area but in general, will be higher “.

The Center for Economic and Social Studies (CESO), for his part, he validated a stronger impact of the Price Freeze and estimated an average monthly inflation of 2.2%. However, he points out that the fourth week of November was marked by a strong increase in meat with a variation of 4% in the week and 7% in the month. ). “In beef cuts, the increases vary between 15 and 40% depending on the cut and the establishment. In the last four weeks, in a national chain we found increases of 37.5% in the special mince, 27.6 % in the selection ring, 27.3% in popcorn and 24.3% in the chorizo ​​steak. “

Above 3%?

The EcoGo consultant Inflation in the order of 3.2% stood out in its average estimate. In his argument, he affirms that “regulated prices showed a modest advance of 1.0% in November” and agrees that the increase in the fees of Buenos Aires schools (4%) with state subsidies drove the rise.

Analysts estimate that November was the month with the highest rise in food and beverages (4.1%), marking some skepticism about the Freeze: “despite the measures implemented by the Secretary of Commerce regarding the end of October, November interrupts the downward path that had exhibited the item in the last three months.The most relevant increases occurred in the first and last week of the month (1.9% and 1.6% respectively), which is why the carry-over from November to the last month of the year amounts to 1.8 pp“.

Finally, SEIDO agrees with EcoGo that the acceleration in prices was recorded in the last week of November and predicts even higher inflation, 3.5% in line with the October figure. “We expect monthly inflation to remain at similar levels in December, staying above 3% month-on-month,” the report detailed. “A price freeze and a pegged exchange rate may be able to cool inflation in the short term, but will prove unsustainable in the long term.”