Monday, January 17

Inflation will accelerate from December, depending on the market: how much it will reach in 2021 and 2022

The Variations expected for the next six months are higher than in the previous survey.

For both November and December 2021, it rose 0.1 percentage points (pp), to 3.1% and 3.4%, respectively.

For January and February 2022, on the other hand, the expectation grew by 0.2 pp to 3.7% in both months. For March, on the other hand, it remained at 4% compared to the previous survey.

While, In April 2022, a 0.1 pp higher variation was projected: 3.7%. And for the month of May the expectation reaches 3.5%.

Annual inflation

By the end of 2021, REM participants projected that Inflation (general level) will reach 51.1% yoy, increasing by 0.8 pp the forecast projected in the previous survey. This forecast would be 15 pp higher than that registered in 2020 (36.1% yoy).

In addition, they raised the inflation forecast for 2022 to 52.1% yoy (+3.2 pp compared to the previous REM) and they projected a 40.8% YoY increase in 2023 (+2.0 pp compared to the last survey).

Compared to the previous survey, the inflation forecast for the next 12 months rose to 52.3% yoy

In addition, projected inflation for the next 24 months (between November 2022 and November 2023) is estimated at 41.1% yoy

The average of those who best predicted this variable in the past for the short term indicates that the general inflation level for 2021 would be located at 51.2% yoy, that is, 0.1 pp above the median of the survey of the totality that participates in the survey (51.1% yoy) and 0.2 pp higher than the forecast that this set of forecasters provided in the previous survey (51.0% yoy).

Core inflation

The core CPI published by INDEC allows price evolution to be monitored without taking into account the volatility of those goods and services that exhibit seasonal behavior (seasonal) or whose prices are subject to state regulation or have a high tax component (regulated) .

Those who participate in REM estimated a core inflation of 3.2% per month for November 2021, this is the same value predicted in the previous survey. With the exception of the month of November, the remaining monthly forecasts were raised with respect to the previous REM. The average of the expected variations in the next six months (December 2021 / May 2022) it stands at 3.7% per month.