Thursday, February 2

JP Morgan and Barclays alert the Bankinter bassist


the hedge fund Citadel attacks Bankinter since the beginning of the year and although its operations are usually constant in the securities in which it has a presence, it has been two weeks without modifying its bet against the entity.

The heghe fund founded and led by Kenneth C. Criffin ignores Bankinter’s annual results, which beat consensus estimates.

The days go by and the Chicago fund does not attend to the potential improvements that the entity is receiving from the brokers after knowing the accounts.

The approval of the market with Bankinter has not ended and the results analysis reports of the large investment bank with a favorable result for the entity commanded by Maria Dolores Dancausa.

Investment banking applauds Bankinter

Analysts are focusing on the results of the fourth quarter of 2021. JP Morgan qualifies them as “solid” and Deutsche Bank highlights a “very strong” activity during the period from October to December.

The levels seen in the last part of the year mean that Barclays revise your profit forecast for Bankinter upwards by 7 percent for this year, 8 percent for 2023 and 4 percent for 2024.

Bankinter achieved a profit of 82 million euros in the fourth quarter, 37 percent more than expected by the market consensus, demonstrating “strong performance on fees, loans and lower than expected cost of risk”, stand out from JP Morgan.

The strength in these parcels leads Barclays to estimate that fees will be a great catalyst for this year and that they may grow up to 6 percent due to better trends in asset management with higher margin products, higher brokerage commissions and performance fees on alternative investments in green energy, private and venture capital, and real estate.

The set of results is quite strong due to commissions and, additionally, to the slight improvement in the INI as a result of the strong credit activity and the resilience in the margins, which would dispel the doubts of the previous quarter”, they emphasize from Deutsche Bank.

The analysts of the German entity add that the credit activity of Bankinter was “surprisingly strong in companies and maintained a good pace in mortgages”.

Cost tensions

At these valuations, Citadel would lack points to hold onto for a fundamental view of its value position, but could defend its bet against entity costs.

The main caveat came from the costs, which were significantly higher than expected., and the capital, which decreased above forecasts due to the growth of loans, ”they insist from Deutsche Bank.

Costs grew to 229 million euros per quarter, 1 percent more year-on-year, 7 percent more than the previous quarter and 4 percent more than the consensus estimate.

The cost of risk stayed at 61 basis points and the CET1 capital ratio fell by 20 basis points to 12.05 percent, but in line with consensus estimates.

Good ROE data

For this reason, from entities such as Barclays they are increasing their cost forecast for “reflect higher inflation”.

His first calculations point to a rise of 3 percent for 2022 and 2023, which would remain in line with what was seen in 2021.

All in all, analysts value the good performance of volumes with the improvement in the customer margin, the growth in net commissions, the drop in the delinquency rate, the group’s solvency and profitability measured by ROE.

Bankinter closed 2021 with an ROE of 9.6 percent, which is on the right track to meet a double-digit ROE target in 2023.



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