Thursday, December 7

Keys to understand the results in Andalusia: the lesser evil

Near the end of the electoral campaign, Moreno launched an order to the Andalusians and discharged the responsibility on the citizenry that Vox did not enter the Government of Andalusia. A blackmail? A challenge? The Andalusians and Andalusians have answered no, that they do not want the extreme right to govern the community.

A young voter told me this week that he voted for the left, but that he was thinking of voting for Moreno. “What I have heard from him in the campaign does not seem so right-wing, and the alternative (that between Vox) is much worse.” His bet was the winning horse, the lesser evil. And his logic portrays the reasoning that has led more than 300,000 people who voted socialist to give their ballot to the PP. The polls drew a picture with a PP on the rise, with Vox as a threat, with a PSOE knocked out and not fully recovering, and a left that has had a hard time getting its head out of its (almost pitched) battles before the elections .

This is one of the reasons for the resounding result of the PP but not the only one.

The famous story that the popular have built has worked, both during the legislature and during the campaign. In these three and a half years they have achieved three goals.

1.- They have managed not to “be scary” in a traditionally left-wing Andalusia. In the environment of the president they already said at the beginning in San Telmo that they could not enter Andalusia “like an elephant in a china shop”. The PP, in fact, has used many of the messages that the PSOE used on other occasions; the last one, the one he used during the debate launching “a pact with the Andalusians”, a common phrase of former president Susana Díaz. Some socialists claim that the PP “has made the Andalusian PSOE better than the Andalusian PSOE.”

two.- They have overshadowed Ciudadanos, their government partner, whose portfolios were the ones that had to confront the most with the extreme right in the Andalusian Parliament. The PP has taken advantage of the achievements and merits and has given a role to Juan Marín (which Marín himself has accepted) as the voice of the crisis. There has been a bear hug, and a use of oranges. So much so that he has not even taken into account his opinion for the election date (Marín was at all times in disagreement with the June call).

3.- In addition, they have kept President Moreno away from controversy and, if you push me, from the spotlight. “Encapsulated”, if we use the verb that has been used the most in Andalusia during this legislature. Elías Bendodo has assumed the task of putting a face and answers to the uncomfortable questions of journalists, and the president has only appeared on very few occasions.

And a fourth element. The propaganda has been overwhelming. Repetitive, simple and effective messages. In which they have repeated ad nauseam the words “economic miracle”, “tax reduction” and “management”.

‘Spain steals from us’ has worked. And the most Andalusian PP of all time has waved more green and white flags than ever

The campaign has arrived and they have succeeded again. His adversary has not been Juan Espadas or the Andalusian Socialists, who have been lost until their renewal as opposition. The adversary that Moreno and his party have put before him has been the Government of the nation, exploiting the grievance against Andalusia (another very socialist strategy). Thus, everything good that happens (including unemployment data) are achievements of the Andalusian government, while all the penalties have come, in the opinion of those of Moreno, from the Government of Sánchez. Spain steals from us has worked. And the most Andalusian PP of all time has waved more white and green flags than ever.

Moreno (hiding the initials of his party) has managed to present himself as the lesser evil for many left-wing voters who have seen a real threat from Vox within the institutions. In fact, they have managed to make the electorate forget that they came to the presidency with the votes of the extreme right, that they approved three budgets with the votes of Vox and that they have even changed our language. But a few months before the elections, the president has uttered words such as feminism for the first time, has said clearly that they will fight against gender-based violence and has demanded the budget increase in education and health (although without detailing the items that come from the state nor the records in referrals to the private, for example). Those messages have softened the crust of a center left very very concerned with the advance of the extreme right.

Now many questions are opened: Does this really mean a change of cycle? Will the borrowed vote return to its privileges in the municipal and national elections? Will the PP continue working on that “moderate” profile or will it take advantage of the absolute majority to implement its policies without hindrance? At a time when bipartisanship is losing strength, will an absolute majority be a danger or a guarantee? Will there be dialogue now or will it disappear as it is not conditioned by anything?

Will the parties use the Andalusian results for their national interests? Are the results of Andalusia really so extrapolated to what happens at the national level? Will the poor results blow up the leftist coalitions or give them reasons to consolidate? Is the PSOE ready to oppose? Are the results going to move the chair to Swords or will your party mates give you the opportunity to build your project during these four years? Has Vox really hit the ceiling or has it fallen asleep waiting for the next crisis?

This week many movements are expected. But, for now, the PP has won comfortably by appealing to the lesser evil.