In the Andalusian elections on June 19, 68.5% of the voters had already decided which party they were going to vote for and the vast majority -40.4%- chose the PP ballot, the party that would end up winning the elections with an absolute majority. This follows from the first post-election survey of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), published this Wednesday. The survey reflects that the level of loyalty of the vote, which until now had always benefited the Andalusian PSOE, was displaced by a high percentage of Andalusians (54.6%) who “vote for one party or another according to the one that most convinces them” .
Juan Manuel Moreno’s PP won the elections in Andalusia for the first time with 1,582,412 votes and 58 deputies [tres por encima de la mayoría absoluta], displacing the PSOE as the first force (883,707 votes; 30 seats) and stopping the rise of Vox, which grew from the 12 it had to 14 deputies (493,932 votes). The coalition of IU, Podemos, Más País and three other left-wing formations -Por Andalucía- was left with five seats (281,688 votes), the minimum to have its own group in Parliament, and Adelante Andalucía won two deputies (167,970 votes). Citizens went from 21 deputies to zero.
The CIS survey confirms the demobilization of the progressive electorate, but refutes the idea that its voters switched to abstention: 22.3% hesitated between various parties and only 3.8% hesitated between one party and voting blank or to refrain.
The biggest dilemma for those interviewed was between voting for the PP or Vox (18.7%), while 15.4% hesitated between supporting Por Andalucía or giving their support to the Adelante Andalucía coalition, headed by Teresa Rodríguez. The first case was clearly resolved in favor of the popular, the second explains the division of the vote between the two proposals to the left of the PSOE. As for the Socialists, 6.9% doubted whether to vote for them or for the PP, while another 9.6% debated between the PSOE and Por Andalucía.
In the questions about vote recall for the comparison of the evolution between the Andalusian elections of 2018 and 19J, the PP appears as the great beneficiary of the transfer of votes from other parties: Ciudadanos, their government partner gobbled up by them in these elections, contributed 71.1% of the votes that the oranges had achieved in 2018; from the PSOE he received 17.5% of the votes cast and from Vox 33.8% (the transfer of 21.5% of former voters of the Pacma animalist party also stands out). The popular electoral base has also widened thanks to the young people who premiered their vote when they turned 18 (31.8% chose the PP) and almost 40% who were abstentionists in 2018 and have now chosen Moreno’s ballot.
The loyalty of the vote to the PP has gone from 57.8% in 2018 -with the worst results in its history- to 86.6% last 19J, surpassing the PSOE for the first time in this category, which falls from 78.8% to 63% faithful vote. The transfer of votes from all parties to Moreno’s PP, including those who voted blank, null or abstained, has expanded its electoral base by more than 40%, according to the calculation of one of the tables in the document.
The PSOE not only loses voting fidelity, it is also the one that receives the least support from other formations: only 13.6% of those who supported Adelante Andalucía in 2018 have opted for the socialists this time, the rest transfer support it is residual.
More significant, on the other hand, is the evolution of the bifurcated vote of the left, divided and confronted in two coalitions that in 2018 militated together under the Adelante Andalucía brand. The voting memory of those elections well represents that fragmentation that has reduced the result of both coalitions on June 19: the electorate of Adelante Andalucía in 2018 has been distributed by Andalucía with 49.7% loyalty for its main members (Podemos and IU) and 25.6% for the new Adelante Andalucía, who have maintained their loyalty to their leader Teresa Rodríguez, after leaving the purple formation and keeping the coalition’s brand.
Both one and the other have transferred 5.3% and 4.9% of the votes respectively to the PSOE, although the Socialists have not thereby increased their income statement (130,000 ballots have been left).
In the case of Vox, the third force in the Andalusian Parliament after 19J with a loyalty of 64.8% of its voters, this time it has lost 33.8% of its 2018 voters in favor of Moreno’s PP. However, the formation of Santiago Abascal has grown in votes and in two seats thanks also to the transfer of votes from the PP (8.4%), from Ciudadanos (5.3%) and, above all, from Andalusians of 18 years who premiered at the polls (11.1%) and who abstained three and a half years ago (12.1%). In total, the extreme right receives 36.9% of vote transfer.
The collapse of Ciudadanos -from 21 seats to disappear as a parliamentary force- is portrayed in the collapse in their vote fidelity, which went from 54% in 2018 to 14.2% in the last elections, with hardly any transfer of votes from other parties .
Ideological vote, sympathy vote
Although the winner of the elections and now president-elect, Juan Manuel Moreno, presented himself as a “de-ideologized” candidate, trying to broaden his electoral base from the center-right to the center-left, 32.3% of the CIS respondents answered that the main reason for their vote was “partisan or ideological affinity.” 22.4% have done so for the electoral program and 21.3% for “management capacity and party experience”. Only 11.8% have voted “against a party or bloc of parties” and 10.5% acknowledge that they have opted for “the useful vote”.
By parties, the PP is the one that receives the least vote due to “ideological affinity”, 16% compared to 58.8% for the PSOE; 52.5% of Por Andalucía or 30% of Vox. In the support for Moreno, recognition of his management (34.9%) and “confidence in the honesty of the candidate” (21.9%) counted more.
The electoral campaign, despite the importance that the candidates, experts and sociologists have placed on it, has only determined the vote of 2.5% of those surveyed. 62% had decided their vote “quite a while before”; 9.9% decided at the beginning of the electoral campaign, 15.7% in the last week of the campaign and 7.9% on the day of the polls. After knowing the results of 19J, 95% reaffirm themselves in the ballot they chose and assure that they would vote the same again.
The participation of those elections (58.36%), the second lowest in regional history, explains why 29% admit that they “did not want to vote” and that 32% affirm that “normally they vote, but this time they do not wanted to do it.” Four out of ten Andalusians had decided “long ago” that this time they would not vote, and 38.9% decided during the campaign. 32% “did not inspire confidence in any party or candidate”, 18% did so “out of discontent” and 15% did not find any “alternative that satisfied them”. After knowing the results of 19J, 93% of those consulted answered that they would have continued to abstain.
For many experts, the first Andalusian elections that show an absolute majority of the PP represent a turn to the right of a community historically linked to the left, where the PSOE was the hegemonic force and government for 37 consecutive years. In the CIS survey, on a scale from 1 to 10 in which 1 represents “furthest to the left” and 10 “furthest to the right”, the highest percentage of responses is situated exactly at 5 (22.7 %). However, 23.2% of those surveyed line up to the left of that intermediate point, and 37.1% to the right of that 5. That is to say, 14 points of difference separate the Andalusians who identify themselves between the center right and the extreme right, from those who are between the center left and the extreme left.
Among the voters of each party, those of the PP are mostly in the center (5) with 26.1% (although 11.3% of popular voters still define themselves as extreme right). Those of the PSOE are not seen mostly in the center, and are placed in positions more inclined to the left: 21.9% in position 3 (center left) and 21% in the extreme left (position 1). 21.8% of Vox voters identify with the extreme right (position 10) and 22.3% with position 8, closer to the center right. 31% of the support for Por Andalucía comes from center-left voters (position 3) and 29.3% from the radical left (position 1).
The field work of the CIS survey has included 3,909 interviews that were carried out between June 21 and 27.