Tuesday, December 7

Naturgy complies with its results but exhausts its potential on the stock market

Naturgy met market expectations by obtaining a net profit until September of 777 million, about 60 percent more than in the same period last year.

The figure was practically in line with the consensus forecast consulted by finance.com, which pointed to a profit of 800 million in the first quarter with the Australian fund IFM as a shareholder.

The divestment of the electricity businesses in Chile and Egypt was key to the accounts by contributing 187 million in capital gains for the energy company.

Demand recovery

In these nine months, the gross operating profit -ebitda- fell by 1 percent to 2,560 million compared to 2020 and 17 percent compared to the previous year.

Naturgy explained in a statement sent to the CNMV that the accounts reflect the recovery in energy demand.

This can be seen in the figures by business units: energy and network management accounted for most of the ebitda, with 2,365 million, 8 percent more than in the same section last year. Something that Barclays analysts had anticipated, who expect that “growth will be driven by this division given the high prices of raw materials”.

“The improvement in energy demand, the recovery in the price of commodities and in the price of the electricity pool in Spain, together with the best in efficiency, are the positive factors at the operational level,” they highlight at Bankinter.

However, the performance of the rest of the divisions fell from 2020 levels. The renewables unit generated 175 million, 36 percent less; commercialization, 130 million that supposes another 36 percent less and other businesses lost 110 million.

Naturgy reviews down its guide

The downward revision of the guide offered by Naturgy for the rest of 2021 raises some doubts among analysts for the final stretch of the year.

“Despite the good evolution in the third quarter, there is uncertainty about the possible evolution of prices and the impact it could have on their accounts,” the Renta 4 analysts point out.

In July, Naturgy said it expected an EBITDA for the year of between 3.9 and 4 billion, while now it has lowered the range by 100 million.

“The current scenario of volatility and uncertainty is foreseeable that it could continue to pressure the results in the short term”, they value in Renta 4, which nevertheless considers that the long-term vision is “unchanged”.

Actions begin corrections

After presenting its accounts, Naturgy shares fell more than 1 percent, the first advance of the corrections that analysts are already waiting for.

Bankinter It recommended selling the securities due to “little potential for appreciation.” “There are other options in the sector with greater potential, more liquidity and higher dividend profitability in the sector such as Enagás or Red Eléctrica,” the analysts emphasize.

Signatures like Morgan Stanley o Bernstein They recommended maintaining, but they set a target price of 21 and 22 euros respectively, below the current price of the company, of 22.86 euros.

BarclaysFor its part, it indicated that the shares were overweight and delivered a price target of 24.70 euros, while JB Capital indicated a price of 20.90 euros.


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